Leeb's Market Forecast - Stock Market Newsletter

The January Indicator

01.26.12

So far, in an incredible start to the year, U.S. stocks are up 4.84 percent. According to the January Barometer, an indicator devised in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, this kind of performance indicates more good things will come for the markets - as a good January suggests an up year is much more likely than a down year.

Defying Conventional Wisdom 01-24-12

01.24.12

With the S&P 500 having logged a 23 percent gain off its early October low and nearly a 20 percent move on a closing basis, it would make sense for some sort of minor correction in stocks to unfold from current levels. The underlying action, however, suggests that any pullback is likely to be quite superficial.

"Technology" companies that really aren't tech 01-23-12

01.23.12

Before the New York Giants – San Francisco 49ers game started this past Sunday I managed to get in some weekend reading. The article that impressed me most was one I found in The New York Times that concerned Apple (AAPL).
Several points should be noted:
First, and here we are talking more sociologically, Apple outsources a massive amount of its manufacturing – particularly to China.

Improved confidence rules the markets 01-19-12

01.19.12

The stock market continues its winning streak, propped by encouraging U.S. economic data. Industrial production, despite weakness in utilities, rose 0.4 percent in December, with manufacturing increasing 0.9 percent.

Two separate surveys – the New York and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing – indicated significant improvement in manufacturers’ expectations. Different measures of consumer confidence have been showing improvements there for weeks now; the improvement in outlook for businesses carries with it more positive implications for the economy.

Wisdom from a sports handicapper 01-17-12

01.17.12

Master Key: -16
I confess than I’m a big New York Giants fan (as a New Yorker, I tend to root for all the New York teams), so this past weekend was very pleasant for me. The Giants were decided underdogs against a seemingly unstoppable quarterback, who finished the season with the best statistics in the history of the game.
And all this reminded me of what a very good friend of mine, who was a superb sports handicapper, once said:
A team never looks as good as when they’re winning.

The bulls retain the upper hand 01-17-12

01.17.12

The stock market has largely shrugged off Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the debt from nine European countries and the EU’s temporary bailout fund, having already priced in the widely expected moves. The market’s reaction is similar to what we saw last year after S&P downgraded U.S. Treasury debt.

Overcoming Obstacles, One at a Time 01-12-12

01.12.12

As the overall tone of economic data becomes more positive, markets have slowly incorporated the notion that disaster may be averted, and have added to the year-end rally accordingly. The Standard and Poor’s 500 index is up 3 percent for the year; while this may not seem as much, remember that the index finished 2011 at the same level as it entered it, without logging any gain whatsoever.

Editors Collection

On the Mooove

07.18.11

ETFs continued to gain in popularity during the first half of 2011. Net cash inflows into exchange-traded funds reached a record $58.6 billion in the first six months of the year, up a whopping 47% from the same period in 2010. The number of funds increased by 20%, with 1,288 ETFs now trading on U.S. markets. As we wrote in Cash Cow’s first issue, ETFs are one of the most game-changing innovations to hit Wall Street in generations.

Understanding the Ups and Downs of Volatility

07.18.11

Often viewed as the exclusive territory of options traders, volatility can be useful to all investors

Anyone in this business for very long rapidly learns that there is a cardinal difference between traders and investors. The former actively tries to time the market, caring little for the overall direction while trying to pinpoint the precise moment when a move occurs. With traders, the shorter the time interval at stake, the better – it leaves less time for exogenous shocks like oil spills and terror bombings to screw up a good position.

Utilizing Utility ETFs for Current Income

07.18.11

Equity ETFs for income investors in the low interest rate environment

Last issue, we started building a portfolio that we expect will appeal to investors seeking income. However, regular income isn’t the only goal of the new column. The other, rather coincidental, feature, is diversification: by adding an income element to our Cash Cow stable, our overall, averaged-out volatility is being reduced. It’s Finance 101.