Business

Mid-Week Update 03-10-10

Jobs continue to be front and center of economists’ and Americans’ minds alike as the Labor Department released a highly anticipated February employment report last week. The report was mixed. On the positive side, the 36,000 job losses during the month were less than the expected 68,000, helping the unemployment rate stay steady at 9.7 percent, rather than rise to an expected 9.8 percent. A 48,000 increase in temp jobs (including 15,000 for the 2010 Census) was a major reason for the better-than-expected reading; some of the luster was taken off January’s numbers as job losses were revised from 20,000 to 26,000.
 
While the headline numbers seem to be better than expected, delving deeper into the underlying situation, things are so “rosy.” Today, the Labor Department released some underlying data showing the unevenness of the recovery. In January, only nine states saw unemployment decrease, including Michigan, whose 14.3 percent rate (down from 14.5 percent in December) is still the worst in the country. New York and New Jersey were among the other eight states, all of which saw unemployment fall by a tenth of a percentage point.
 
And while unemployment held steady, the number of underemployed workers unfortunately rose during the month of February.
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Mid-Week Update 03-03-10

Qualcomm (QCOM), the newest addition to the Growth Portfolio and a part of our FundFinds Portfolio, is a tech franchise whose business revolves around wireless technology, in particular, CDMA, the heart of the new generation of cell phones. After posting disappointing earnings guidance in January, the company had some goods news this week.
 
The semiconductor company announced that its board authorized the new buyback worth $3 billion. This replaces the $2-billion buyback plan, $1.7 billion worth of shares from which have already been repurchased by the company. In addition, Qualcomm will increase its quarterly dividend by 12 percent to $0.19. Investors, as a result, will be receiving $134.4 million more per year from the company.
 
Moreover, the company provided a more optimistic business outlook. While back in January, Qualcomm’s CEO, Paul Jacobs, offered a fairly pessimistic view of the company’s prospects for the year, it seems conditions may be improving. Now, the company expects both the revenues and profit for the second quarter to approach the higher end of the earlier forecasts.
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Market Update 03-02-10

The bifurcated economy continues to plod along. The manufacturing segment is doing fairly well thanks in large part to strong export demand, which has risen for seven consecutive months. The service sector, however, continues to struggle.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 02-24-10

Despite some positive economic news that has come out in recent weeks, one area of the economy that has yet to show real signs of improvement is retail spending. American consumers are still reeling from the near collapse of the U.S. economy, and nearly 10 percent of them don’t have a job (many more if you count partially employed). This raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery, given that personal consumption accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
 
Consumer sentiment is still not back to normal. Yesterday the Conference Board announced that its consumer confidence index had fallen from an upward-revised 56.5 to 46.0. The historic average of the index is 95.6, which means that the recovery, from the consumer’s perspective, has a long way to go. When consumers were asked to assess the current-day conditions, the relevant index fell 5.8 points to 19.4 – its lowest level since 1983. Perhaps even more worrisome, the Expectations Index, which measures the six-month outlook, also declined, dropping 13.5 points to 63.8.
 
The main factor contributing to these declines was, not surprisingly, the dismal job climate.
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Market Update 02-16-10

The European Union’s plans for aiding the ailing Greek economy continue to dominate the financial headlines this week. Last Thursday, EU member states pledged to come to Greece’s rescue—should they ask for it—without offering solid details on an aid package. That news settled equity markets while simultaneously hurting rather than helping the euro. The news also buoyed precious metals.Read more...

Market Update 02-07-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -70 (Neutral-to-Negative)
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Inside this week's update...
***** Can't read China's poker face?
***** China tells its people to “buy gold.”
***** The two greatest investment opportunities for the next decade.
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China is a hot topic these days, and rightly so. It's the storm cloud gathering over our backyard. And as much as we try to reassure ourselves it will blow over, it's time to move the party indoors - or perhaps start planting seeds.
 
Of course, there are always deniers. Recently, we heard a short seller suggest that China's real estate market was in a bubble on the grounds that the nation was building commercial space equal to 25 square feet for every citizen – as if that was excessive.
 
Of course, that building program won't be completed for another couple of years. More to the point, in the U.S. we have more than 400 square feet of commercial real estate per person. So 25 sq. feet doesn't seem that ambitious for a nation that's fast becoming the world's factory floor.
 
Sure, a few cities in China that could accidentally find themselves with too much space for rent. It happens. But don't think that means the nation as a whole is becoming overbuilt.
 
One thing we know for certain is that China maintains an inscrutable poker face. It's a tough read.
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Mid-Week Update 02-03-10

In Monday’s Market Update, we highlighted the few information technology companies that we feel qualify as franchises. With one exception, all of those companies are represented in our Growth Portfolio. Today, we add Qualcomm (QCOM) to the portfolio – completing our technology franchise portfolio.
 
As we noted, Qualcomm’s business centers around patents regarding wireless technology, with many related to the CDMA mobile communication platform. In fact, over 25 years of research and development have translated into a portfolio of approximately 11,600 U.S. and 54,100 international patents and patent applications. Qualcomm has become a technology supplier to myriad companies, providing either the semiconductor chips or licensing its technology for a fee, with the company’s business model being to provide wireless companies big and small with the know-how needed to bring their innovations to the market. We think they’ve succeeded in that quest, and are reaping the benefits of decades of hard work.
 
The CDMA platform is front and center of the shift to third generation or 3G wireless communications, a platform supporting faster speeds for larger packets of data.
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