Social Issues

Market Update 07-20-10

China’s economy grew 10.3 percent (annualized) in the second quarter, down from the 11.9 percent mark in the first quarter but still, at double digits, easily at the front of the pack among major economies. China’s State Information Center reports that in the second half of the year, export growth may slow down to 16.3 percent as a result of slowdown in the global recovery. The press is reporting this as a halving of China’s export growth rate because the year-on-year improvement was 35 percent in the first six months of the year.
 
However, it should be noted that China’s exports improved by approximately 30 percent in the second half of 2009 compared to the first half, so the slower growth rate can partially be attributed to having a tougher comparison benchmark. To put it in a perspective, compared to the first half of this year, Chinese exports will still grow by about 12 percent sequentially even if the forecast for the slowdown in the year-over-year growth is on target, hardly a terrible figure. It’s worth reiterating that for all the talk of China slowing down, it will still remain the fastest growing major economy, and many economists think that a more moderate growth pace is better for the well-being of the country in the long run.
 
Indeed, with growth moderating from overheating pace, the Chinese government will find it easier to take a more supportive stance on its economy.
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Stocks waver in the summer doldrums: Market Update/Red Alert 07-12-10

Short-Term Key: Neutral Long-Term Key: -16 (Neutral)
 
Last week's 512 point gain on the Dow managed to wipe out the losses from the previous week, returning the market to the trading range it's been mired in since last September and assuaging fears of a bigger sell-off ... for now.
 
But before we breathe too big a sigh of relief, let's keep in mind that the market will probably take its short-term cue from corporate earnings, the most recent reports of which will start to come in this week. Expectations are high this time around, with most analysts predicting the S&P's overall earnings will be 33% higher than last year.
 
That's a pretty tough bar to hit. With many of the economic statistics still lackluster, we wouldn't be surprised if earnings fall short of expectations. If so, it means a downward bias to stock prices could emerge for the next few weeks. We don't expect a big correction, but neither do we expect a bullish leg up.
 
In addition, small cap stocks have begun to lag their large cap cousins.
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Mid-Week Update 06-16-10

Swiss drug maker and Income Portfolio member Novartis (NVS) is on the verge of shaking up the market for multiple sclerosis drugs. The neurological disease, also known as MS, affects some 2.5 million people worldwide. It has a growing drug market, expected to reach $15 billion by 2015.

Late last week, an FDA advisory panel voted 21-3 in favor of Novartis’s Gilenia drug to be “generally recommended” as an initial treatment for MS. Gilenia would be the first pill used to treat the disease, whose current therapies are harder to maintain because of difficult administration and/or harsh side effects.

While the panel voted unanimously in favor of the pill’s efficacy and safety, it does not come without its own side effects, including heart, lung, and liver risks and infections. With these in mind, the panel voted to suggest a study of lower dosing amounts: 0.25 milligrams a day, versus the current 0.5 milligram proposed daily dose. The study, which Novartis says could take some five to six years to complete with 2,000 patients, can wait until Gilenia is on the market, according to the panel.

novartis graphRead more...

Market Update 06-02-10

With all the gloom and doom surrounding Europe, Germany, the largest and one of the sounder EU economies, looks to be doing better. The latest numbers there showed that unemployment fell sharply as exports grew, helped by the lower euro. The number of officially unemployed Germans now stands at 3.25 million (for a 7.7 percent rate), the lowest level since the end of 2008. However, the dark cloud hovering over the entire European region could keep business confidence low despite an otherwise relatively strong economy, confirmed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) recently upgraded 2010 and 2011 growth forecast for Germany; GDP growth next year is expected to be in the order of 2.1 percent, higher than average for Europe (which is still optimistically expected to be 1.8 percent).
Speculation is stirring that China may be reviewing its holding of euro assets, speculations that the Chinese have been quick to deny, stating that China will not pare its European investments. While the assurance from China may be a ploy to prevent potentially triggering a massive selloff and thereby eroding the value of its holdings, the fact remains that there simply aren’t too many alternatives to the euro. The U.S.
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Mid-Week Update 05-26-10

The focus of healthcare reform continues to be on improving care and coverage while lowering overall costs to Americans. However, some may overlook that there are other measures beyond expanded insurance coverage and technology adoption that will be used to accomplish this. One such measure included in the healthcare overhaul signed into law earlier this year permitted U.S. regulators to approve generic forms of biological drugs.

Biological drugs, or biologics, are those drugs made from a living organism (or its products) used to prevent or treat cancer, arthritis, and other diseases. It’s a big and promising market, so it’s not surprising that Growth Portfolio member Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) is working to enter it in the U.S.

The Israeli-based, worldwide generic drug leader is currently recruiting patients for clinical trials of a “biosimilar” that treats rheumatoid arthritis. The name brand drug, Rituxan, is also used to treat non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and is the second biggest selling drug of Roche Holding AG (former Growth Portfolio member). Teva already sells the generic version, dubbed MabThera, outside the US, but is working for regulatory approval here by 2014.Read more...

Something worse than taxes: 05-24-10

Short-Term Key: Neutral Long-Term Key: -24.9 (Neutral)|

I have a friend who is one of the brightest financial analysts I know. He's made a number of brilliant calls over the years, including anticipating the housing collapse as early as 2006 along with many of the problems that have since plagued the euro. I say this because I want you to know that one of the best and brightest does think that chaos is very close at hand.

Lately, he's been predicting the imminent disintegration of the European Monetary Union, the end of the euro as Europe's common currency, and its devastating impact on U.S. stocks. But as much as I respect my friend's opinion on this matter, I have to disagree with him on the matter of timing. I think we have a few years before the euro disappears.

Today’s action (it's mid afternoon as I write this) makes an interesting comment on the issue. The euro has dropped about 1.5 cents in the past few hours, which is a huge decline compared to its historical volatility. Yet U.S. stock prices are little changed, while most commodities are higher.

That's a pretty good sign that further euro weakness may not lead to a huge economic calamity. It's a change from the past few weeks when stock prices and commodities have generally moved in lock step with the euro, and it suggests that the market may tolerate a devalued euro.

As we said last week, a lower euro may help the European economy by making its exports cheaper, which in turn may postpone the eventual end to the common currency.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 05-05-09

With healthcare reform through Congress and signed by the President, there are sure to be changes in the sector’s landscape. We explore some of what we see as the surest winners in your May issue of The Complete Investor. Today we’ll cover some recent earnings reports from healthcare positions in our Growth Portfolio. Our picks are benefiting from an already well-entrenched trend: the proliferation of generic drugs.Read more...

China wants more gold, so should you

The other day, a close friend of mine sent me a few paragraphs regarding a new relationship China has formed with the World Gold Council. The WGC is a trade association for gold miners, and China is working with it to develop new gold-related investment products

One paragraph stood out like a sore thumb: “The arrangement with ICBC, China's largest bank by assets, is designed to promote continued strong demand for gold in China at a time when the country's recent rapid growth in gold production seems likely to slow, creating more need for imports.”

You may recall from a recent update that China has been mining a very high portion of its gold reserves – 16% in the past year according to the USGS. That's more than 3X the global rate of reserve extraction! In fact, the nation has become the largest gold producer in the world despite a reserve base which is nothing to write home about. Australia, for example, with three times the reserve base of China, is producing only 2/3rds as much gold as China.

Certainly, this desperate mining rate puts the lie to recent claims that Chinese demand for gold is ready to slow and that the country doesn't want to make gold a bigger part of its monetary reserves. In fact, it looks like China wants to acquire as much gold as it can as quickly as it can without triggering a squeeze in the gold market.Read more...

Market Update 04-05-10

The other day, a close friend of mine sent me a few paragraphs regarding a new relationship China has formed with the World Gold Council. The WGC is a trade association for gold miners, and China is working with it to develop new gold-related investment products.

One paragraph stood out like a sore thumb: “The arrangement with ICBC, China's largest bank by assets, is designed to promote continued strong demand for gold in China at a time when the country's recent rapid growth in gold production seems likely to slow, creating more need for imports.”

You may recall from a recent update that China has been mining a very high portion of its gold reserves – 16% in the past year according to the USGS. That's more than 3X the global rate of reserve extraction! In fact, the nation has become the largest gold producer in the world despite a reserve base which is nothing to write home about. Australia, for example, with three times the reserve base of China, is producing only 2/3rds as much gold as China.

Certainly, this desperate mining rate puts the lie to recent claims that Chinese demand for gold is ready to slow and that the country doesn't want to make gold a bigger part of its monetary reserves. In fact, it looks like China wants to acquire as much gold as it can as quickly as it can without triggering a squeeze in the gold market.Read more...