| Leeb's Market Forecast Analysis and Tips

Wall Street pundits are currently debating whether we will segue into a period of inflation or deflation. Both of these have their challenges for investors, although (as we have said many times) inflation would be the lesser of the two evils. Fortunately, the argument for deflation has some serious flaws.

We understand why some argue for deflation. Capacity utilization is at a record low, while the American consumer faces a tough situation. His income has either fallen or stagnated. Certainly his wages are not rising. He pays higher gasoline prices which cramp his lifestyle. He may also face new taxes if President Obama's healthcare scheme gets traction. The best case scenario for U.S. growth may be 1-2% a year. Maybe 3% for a quarter or two. But the days of sustainable 3.5% growth are long gone. So far we agree with the deflationists.

But deflation isn't the whole story. The deflation argument depends on the false belief that what happens in the U.S. will spread to the entire world economy. That in turn only seems reasonable if your perspective is firmly lodged in the 20^th century – a time when the U.S.

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Mid-Week Update 07-22-09

We are in the full swing of earnings season, and the market is sorting through companies’ reports to find clues as to the state of the economy. Our read has largely been that only those companies that have significant operations in the developing nations are showing strength, while many domestic companies are still having trouble. In other words, we think that the American economy is not out of the woods yet. Today we’ll review two Growth Portfolio picks that reported earnings yesterday: Coca-Cola (KO), a multinational powerhouse, and Apple (AAPL), a predominantly domestic company that has bucked the trend of weak consumer spending.Read more...

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Mid-Week Update 06-10-09

Try as we might, the timing of our stock purchases isn’t always the best. Case in point was our addition of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to The Complete Investor Growth Portfolio last October. We added the stock just as the market was embarking on another downleg in the worst bear market in most investors’ lifetime. But while the market’s outlook plays a role in our stock selections, every bit as important, if not more so, is a given company’s long-term prospects and its stock valuation.

Since our initial recommendation, Hewlett-Packard has only slightly outperformed the overall market. But while this is somewhat of a disappointment, our view of the company is in no way diminished. In fact, we like it every bit as much today as we did eight months ago.

Along with Intel (INTC) and Apple (AAPL), also in the Growth Portfolio, Hewlett is one of the few true franchises in the technology space. The company is frequently pigeonholed as being just another computer company. But HPQ is much deeper than that.Read more...

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Mid-Week 08-26-09

Market Update 07-27-09

Mid-Week Update 07-22-09

Mid-Week Update 06-10-09

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