Baker Hughes

Market Update 09-08-09

The latest employment report from the Department of Labor was a mixed bag of news. While the number of initial job loss claims last week declined by 4,000 from the preceding week, at 570,000, it was 10,000 more than expected. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance also rose by 92,000 and now totals more than 6.2 million. The unemployment rate crept closer to double digits to 9.7 percent in August after it had remained essentially unchanged in June and July. There are now 14.9 unemployed Americans, and that figure doesn’t include the more than 9 million people working part time involuntarily or the discouraged people who have given up job hunting. Although recent economic data have suggested slight improvement, the job market still remains bleak, reiterating the likelihood that Americans will not open their wallets wide enough to facilitate a smooth and speedy economic rebound.

Meanwhile, gold continues its impressive run. It eclipsed the $1,000 mark earlier today and has rallied some 5 percent since the start of last week. Investors are beginning to question whether the market, up some 50 percent since its March low has much upside left. Helping the bearish case is unusually low trading volume, as well as the last week’s performance. The U.S. dollar, once synonymous with safety, is no longer the safe haven as a direct result of the unprecedented amount of national debt and our loose monetary policies.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 05-20-09

Crude oil prices are once again above $60 a barrel and local television newscasts have returned to that old chestnut, consumers grousing about the high cost of gasoline, to fill airtime. Nevermind the fact that despite the great lengths we go to extract, transport and refine it, ounce-for-ounce petrol is still far cheaper than a cup of coffee or bottled water. 
 
It’s curious that the gains in oil (which is up approximately 75 percent from its lows) and gasoline (up more than 50 percent) have occurred amid the greatest oversupply in a generation.
 
The financial crisis and subsequent economic contraction has pushed peak oil—the point at which the world is unable to increase oil production—from the public’s psyche. But it will not meaningfully delay the inevitable decline in output.
 
 
Peak oil will only be clearly recognized with the benefit of hindsight. Yet a good case can be make that we’ve already past that inflection point. Our guess is that energy prices will temporarily retreat in the near term as a full economy recovery is still a ways off and investors get nervous after the big run they’ve had in recent months.
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COLD SEAS AND COLDER WINTERS 10-16-06

As expected, the highs keep rolling in these days. Last week was the third in a row that the Dow made an all-time high. It’s now just 20 points away from the 12,000 mark. The S&P is climbing strongly too, setting new recovery highs each week.

Is this the start of a new bull market, or just the last gasp before a renewed bear? Only time will tell for sure. In these updates, we only deal in probabilities, not certainties. And right now, according to our technical indicators, the most probable short-term action is higher share prices. This bodes especially well for the big cap, quality stocks we’ve been encouraging you to invest in, such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), United Parcel Services (UPS), Eli Lily (LLY), General Electric (GE), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT). Most likely, they will lead for the remainder of this rally.

Even more exciting, our Long-Term Master Key is flashing bullish for the second week in a row. (Just to remind you, a buy signal results whenever oil prices have declined year-over-year.) Over the past 30 years, stocks have never fallen more than 5% during the six months following a buy signal from the Long-Term MK.Read more...