Microsoft

Mid-Week Update 07-14-10

Second quarter earnings season is finally upon us. After first-reporter Alcoa released positive results on Monday, Growth Portfolio member and technology bellwether Intel (INTC) reported blowout numbers last night after the market’s close.

The largest computer chip maker in the world collected $2.89 billion in net income, or 51 cents a share, during the second quarter – easily outpacing consensus estimates of 43 cents. Importantly, the semiconductor giant accomplished this through outperformance on both the top-line (revenues were $10.8 billion versus expectations of $10.3 billion), and the bottom line, with further gross profit margin improvements (67.2 percent versus 50.8 percent in the same period last year). With this strong showing, the company upped its gross margin estimate for the full-year: to 66 percent from a previous prediction of 64 percent.

Intel’s forward-looking guidance also beat expectations. For the current quarter, the company now expects total sales to be $11.6 billion – plus or minus $400 million. Analysts had estimated $10.9 billion, so Intel’s most bearish guidance now exceeds the average analysts’ expectations by $300 million. CEO Paul Otellini cited higher enterprise spending as the catalyst behind the impressive results and forecast. Corporate customers are replacing old desktops and laptops, while other companies like Google and Facebook are increasing the size of their server farms.Read more...

The next big energy play: 06-01-10

Short-Term Key: Neutral
Long-Term Key: -19 (Neutral)
 
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Inside this Memorial Day update...
***** A bit of good news.
***** How the oil spill could ignite natural gas.
***** 2 stocks leveraged to one of today's biggest opportunities.
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Market news has been exceedingly grim for the past month or so. Europe is being torn apart by sovereign debt. Oil keeps spilling uncontrollably into the Gulf. Manufacturing surveys – especially on foreign shores - show a slowing world economy. Nonetheless, there are a couple of bright spots in all this which you should take note of.
 
Good market observers pay a lot of attention to divergences – statistics that seem to be out of whack with one another. These divergences often hold the key to market changes.
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Updating the Best from the Brainiest

All the stocks in FundFinds remain buys

 
FundFinds is a stock portfolio with a difference. We don’t look just for stocks we like—we first look for funds we like and then seek out the newest, or biggest, or most unusual of their holdings. Next we evaluate those holdings using our own stringent criteria. If they make the grade, they join FundFinds.
 
Using this approach, which lets us benefit from the expertise of top fund managers, we’ve accumulated a diversified group of 16 stocks. They all remain buys.
 
Our first picks, from Sequoia fund, were giant pharmaceutical chain Walgreen and rug maker Mohawk Industries.
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The Tricky Art of Buying Tech

As tech products come down in price, investors need to get a lot pickier

 
The chart below graphically presents the dilemma you face when it comes to investing in tech. Depicting the role information technology has played in the economy over the past eight years, it has two separate lines. As you can see, one line is virtually flat—in fact, it is down a bit from its high point in 2000. The second line, though, rises steeply.
 
The flat line shows the dollar value of tech in the economy. The uptrended line reflects the actual physical presence of tech in the economy—for instance, the number of semiconductors in use. The explanation for why the two lines don’t look the same is simple: we’re using more tech, but prices have been coming down.
 
This, in a nutshell, is why the technology arena is both compelling and tricky for investors. The rising demand for tech products creates an indisputable opportunity.
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The Joy of Games: Scoring with Electronic Arts

Plus plaudits to our portfolio last quarter and sales of Cardinal Health and Intuit

 
If you’ve been following our Growth Portfolio recommendations, we don’t think you’re complaining. In TCI’s first full quarter (the fourth quarter of 2003), the portfolio climbed more than 16 percent, outperforming a peppy S&P 500 by nearly 5 percentage points. Every group and risk classification participated, and only one stock—Weight Watchers (which we still like, see p.11)—was down by more than 1 percent. Gains of 25 percent and more were chalked up by favorites ranging from Apex Silver to Tyco to H&R Block. Our energy stocks also were strong, though they remain cheap relative to the market and the current level of energy prices. These results didn’t stem from any black boxes—just diversification, an abiding emphasis on low PEG ratios, and a lot of elbow grease to ensure our growth and earnings estimates remain on target.
 
We’re making two sales and one new purchase.
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WHAT THEY’RE BUYING

Calamos Growth’s front-end sales charge may understandably deter some investors. But nobody has questioned the ability of the fund’s managers to pick good stocks. And when management adds to an existing position, that stock is worth an especially close look.
 
During the past quarter, Calamos significantly beefed up its holdings of Electronic Arts (ERTS), making it the fund’s second-largest position. Electronic Arts is the biggest U.S. developer, publisher, and distributor of videogames, with more than $2.9 billion in sales. It’s a leader in all parts of the interactive game market, producing and distributing titles for PCs, Sony’s PlayStation, Microsoft’s Xbox, and Nintendo’s GameCube. By continuously gaining market share, the company has increased sales even during periods of overall industry decline. (In the second quarter of 2003, revenues for Electronic Arts grew by almost 17 percent, while the industry showed a 1 percent decline.) It has almost no debt, and its management team is as sharp as they come.
 
Even if you’ve never heard of Electronic Arts, you’re probably familiar with some of its products.
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Making It With Metals

Rising industrial demand should push platinum and palladium higher

 
A few years back, after a long period of steady prices, platinum and its sister metal palladium had huge moves. These stemmed both from bureaucracy-induced supply bottlenecks in Russia, a major producer, and a growing recognition that the metals are indispensable in certain industrial applications. Palladium rose to more than $1000 an ounce from its prior $100-$200 level, while platinum went from around $350 an ounce to above $600. Eventually, as economic growth stalled, prices came back down. But lately, with economic growth picking up, both metals have once again been uptrended, with platinum surging past prior highs.
 
Clearly you can make a lot of money investing in these metals. You also can lose big—Ford Motors, for instance, a major user of palladium, which is essential in emission-reducing catalytic converters, blew $1 billion because of colossal timing errors in its purchases.
 
We think that demand for these metals will remain strong and that their uptrends will continue to gain force.
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WHAT THEY’RE BUYING

It’s the behemoth of equity funds: Fidelity Magellan (FMAGX). A household name that’s been around for more than 40 years, it has more than $62 billion in assets. It’s so big that it has to invest mostly in the largest U.S. stocks; in fact, its returns are so close to the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 index that it has been termed an “S&P 500 fund in disguise.”
 
So what is this giant, and closed, fund holding? At first glance, all the usual suspects—Citigroup, General Electric, Microsoft, AIG, Pfizer—all S&P top tenants, all mega-caps. But dig a little deeper and there are a couple of surprises.
 
In particular, the fund’s third-biggest holding is Viacom, a company with a much smaller capitalization than any of the above.
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