Mosaic

Market Update 08-24-10

BHP Billiton’s (BHP) bid to take over Canadian fertilizer producer Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) has officially been rejected as being too low. But the buzz created by the takeover attempt isn’t dying. First, there was speculation that one of the Chinese state-owned enterprises would step in and shell out the cash for Potash—if anyone has ample cash for the acquisition, the Chinese do. Today, there’s new speculation that BHP’s Australian rival, Rio Tinto (RTP), may partner with a Chinese company and submit its own bid for Potash. Rumors are also circulating that fellow fertilizer producer Mosaic (MOS) may partner with other agricultural companies to acquire Potash.
 
The high level of interest in Potash highlights the bullish case for fertilizers, essential for growing crops. In the long run, population growth and improving standards of living in developing countries should lead to continual demand for fertilizer to increase food supply. In the nearer term, the rally of crop prices due to adverse weather conditions (for example, Russia’s drought and wild fires) reducing supply should lead to an extra demand jolt for fertilizers as farmers scramble to take advantage of more favorable pricing.
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Mid-Week Update & Orange Alert 08-18-10

Yesterday, Growth Portfolio member and the largest retailer in the world Wal-Mart (WMT) reported its second-quarter results. Earnings per share were up 9 percent – and, more important, the company increased its EPS guidance for the full year. It’s now expecting to make from $3.95 to $4.05, exceeds its earlier forecast of $4 profit for the year.

With the economy remaining weak, we view its sales growth as disappointing, although Wal-Mart continued to excel in leveraging expenses. As a result, operating income increased at a 4.4 percent rate over the like last year period, a better rate than sales. Wal-Mart customers continued to spend cautiously, and, as was commented on the company’s conference call, “the paycheck cycle remains pronounced. Government assistance continues to increase as a form of payment, particularly in regions with higher unemployment and credit now only represents about 15 percent of our tender.”

The soft U.S. economy was reflected in Wal-Mart’s flat U.S. sales. Same-store sales and same-store traffic declined—although they did show improvement by the end of the quarter. The weakness of the U.S. market was partially offset by strong trends in Wal-Mart International. Internationally, net sales increased by 11 percent and operating income grew faster than sales, reflecting growing margins.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 12-09-09

In 2008, tight lending conditions hurt farmers’ ability to take on loans – preventing them not only from making capital expenditures on things like tractors and other machinery, but also hurting their ability to buy fertilizer. As demand weakened, fertilizer companies, including our Mosaic (MOS) and Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) took it on the chin with shares losing more than two-thirds of their value in some cases. Read more...

Running low on another vital commodity 10-19-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -14 (Neutral)Read more...

Market Update 10-19-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -14 (Neutral)Read more...

Mid-Week Update 09-23-09

Commodities have been rising across the board. Since bottoming in late February, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, a widely used gauge of prices for almost two dozen commodities, has rallied almost 30 percent – helping to fuel a rally in energy and material stocks. There are several reasons why this rally is one of the strongest on record. Materials have reacted to the re-emergence of growth in developing economies around the world; their appeal as a hedge against a weakening dollar has contributed strongly to the ongoing demand. Read more...

The pop of the bubble approaches. 08-10-09

Short-Term Key: Negative  Long-Term Key: +50

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CHINA'S EFFECT ON COMMODITY PRICES 05-18-09

Today, our neighbors to the north are celebrating the birthday of Queen Victoria, the most commemorated and longest-reigning British monarch. Frankly, if President Obama manages to get our nation through the current economic crisis successfully in the few years allotted to him, celebrating his birthday from then on would be the least honor we could bestow. No matter how much he wanted the job, being promoted to ship's captain in the midst of a typhoon is one tough assignment.
 
Of course, many people will find the coming months tough, including investors, who will likely find that any recovery is a double-edged sword. You see, we've noticed a very strong correlation between changes in raw commodity prices and changes in corporate profits, dating back at least a generation. And that relationship implies both opportunities and pitfalls ahead.
 
For instance, the current stock market rally seems to be anticipating a surge in corporate profits. Right now, the S&P sells for roughly 20X annualized first quarter profits (S&P / (Q1 profits) * 4 = 20). That's far too high. So either the S&P has gotten too far ahead of itself, or corporate profits will likely surge forward in coming months.
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Mid-Week Update 04-22-09

Even if it has been years since you cracked a Psych 101 text book, chances are you can still recall the bottom tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: food, air, sleep, etc. In the wake of the financial crisis, though, it seems investors have forgotten just how important a role food plays in our lives. Of course that creates a great opportunity for anyone with a time horizon beyond just a few days or weeks.Read more...