Petrobras

Mid-Week Update 11-25-09

Petrobras (PBR), the Brazilian oil giant and one of the largest oil producers in the world, recently announced its third quarter results, bringing in R$7.3 billion ($4.2 billion) in earnings. Although down from R$9.84 billion in the same quarter last year, the figures narrowly beat Bloomberg’s average analyst estimates of R$7.25 billion.
 
The results reflect a challenging quarter, in which oil prices dropped 41 percent from a year ago. Indeed, Petrobras’ competitors all took similar hits on the back of lower crude prices, most of them to a greater degree than Petrobras (ExxonMobil’s third-quarter profit fell a whopping 68 percent and Royal Dutch Shell’s profits fell 62 percent). With production strong and on track to fulfill output targets, and with various long-term opportunities waiting to be exploited, we believe that Petrobras’ long-term prospects remain as strong as ever.
 
Petrobras has one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves and is among the top ten companies in the world in terms of oil and gas production, as well as total refining capacity. The CEO, Jose Sergio Gabrielli, said in a recent interview that Petrobras’ proven reserves could more than double to around 35 billion barrels in the next two to three years, up from roughly 14 billion now.
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Market Update 06-11-08

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Volume 5, Number 24 

June 11, 2008 

Fears of greater inflation along with mixed economic signals and high oil prices have kept pressure on the stock market in recent sessions. Nevertheless, the market appears to offer more upside potential than downside risk in the short run according to our unbiased market timing models. At the same time, we are not overly exposed on the long side of the market- our call positions are mostly energy and gold related.

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Weekly Update 06-16-08

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The G8 finance ministers met in Japan last weekend, where they confirmed what we have been saying for some time: “Elevated commodity prices, especially of oil and food, pose a serious challenge to stable growth worldwide, have serious implications for the most vulnerable, and may increase global inflationary pressures.” Forget about credit problems, housing, and the financial sector. Oil and other commodities are the big crisis now. But it's not as simple as it seems...

WHY YOU SHOULD LEARN TO LOVE THREE-DIGIT OIL

It seems clear to us that if oil were to rise much higher than $150 a barrel, its impact on the world economy would be severe. Probably, growth would short-circuit.

On the other hand, if oil prices fell back under $100 (as most drivers currently pray), everyone might breathe a sign of relief. But that relief would be short-lived.Read more...

Weekly Update 06-02-08

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Stocks and oil are taking different roads these days. Last week, the price of a barrel of oil fell $4.84 while the S&P 500 gained.

Despite whatever short-term weakness remains, we suspect that oil will get a lot more expensive over the next 6-12 months. Meanwhile, stocks should continue to chop sideways, barring an economic accident in China or elsewhere in the developing world. At the same time the market will grow even more sensitive to the movements of oil.

Our short-term Master Key remains strangely favorable. Perhaps it is predicting that oil could correct over the next few weeks (before resuming its climb). We don't know for certain how much of a correction that might be, but here's where we think oil prices will find some support – and where we would feel oil and other commodity stocks would look like bargains...

OIL'S NEWLY ESTABLISHED BOTTOM?Read more...