SHOULD TCI STAND FOR “TWO COMMODITIES INVESTOR”? MAYBE THIS WEEK…

The stock market remained in neutral last week, with the S&P 500 rising just 0.6%. Ho hum.

Instead, the real excitement was in gold, which dropped $21.98, but still closed the week above the psychological threshold of $500. “Ho ho ho,” we say, pondering the significance of this development, and also in keeping with the holiday season.

Two updates ago, we said we were waiting to see if $500 would become the new floor in gold prices. If so, we might increase our weighting in the precious metal. It’s still too early to determine one way or another. Gold’s next move will show us whether it has peaked or is just getting warmed up.

Either way, our faith in gold is increasing. It has not only hit 24-year highs, but has also broken out in all the world’s major currencies.

Just as gold managed to close above $500 two weeks in a row, our other favorite commodity, oil, has spent the last two weeks struggling to break out from its Shoulder Season pullback. Although it fell $0.34 last week, to $59.05, it nonetheless seems to be emerging from the downtrend it began in August. A weekly close well above $60 would help confirm this.Read more...