Wal-Mart

Mid-Week Update & Orange Alert 08-18-10

Yesterday, Growth Portfolio member and the largest retailer in the world Wal-Mart (WMT) reported its second-quarter results. Earnings per share were up 9 percent – and, more important, the company increased its EPS guidance for the full year. It’s now expecting to make from $3.95 to $4.05, exceeds its earlier forecast of $4 profit for the year.

With the economy remaining weak, we view its sales growth as disappointing, although Wal-Mart continued to excel in leveraging expenses. As a result, operating income increased at a 4.4 percent rate over the like last year period, a better rate than sales. Wal-Mart customers continued to spend cautiously, and, as was commented on the company’s conference call, “the paycheck cycle remains pronounced. Government assistance continues to increase as a form of payment, particularly in regions with higher unemployment and credit now only represents about 15 percent of our tender.”

The soft U.S. economy was reflected in Wal-Mart’s flat U.S. sales. Same-store sales and same-store traffic declined—although they did show improvement by the end of the quarter. The weakness of the U.S. market was partially offset by strong trends in Wal-Mart International. Internationally, net sales increased by 11 percent and operating income grew faster than sales, reflecting growing margins.Read more...

Midweek Update/Stock Spotlight

Shares of electronic payment processor Visa (V) have been punished over the last 3 trading days (ended yesterday) after the U.S. Senate included limits on debit-card fees in its version of the financial overhaul bill. Visa, which owns and operates the world’s largest electronic payment network, is at the center of proposed regulation on interchange fees – a large component of fees charges to merchants for utilizing credit and debit cards.
 
Illinois Senator Richard Durbin successfully included the measure (after several failed attempts in years past) which limits debit card interchange, or “swipe” fees that are charged to merchants, and gives the Federal Reserve the authority to make the final decision. The fees are charged in connection with the acceptance of payment cards, and while Visa administers the collection and remittance of these fees, the processor generally doesn’t receive a portion of them. Visa is, however, involved in setting the default rate, with its aim to make it appealing to both merchant and card issuer to use credit and debit cards. If the fee is too high, merchants won’t accept the payments cards; if the fee is too low, it’s less worthwhile for card issuers to offer cards at all.
 
The fees will certainly not disappear completely, and it remains to be seen how much of a change the Fed would institute (if the measure is included in the final bill).
Read more...

Mid-Week Update 02-24-10

Despite some positive economic news that has come out in recent weeks, one area of the economy that has yet to show real signs of improvement is retail spending. American consumers are still reeling from the near collapse of the U.S. economy, and nearly 10 percent of them don’t have a job (many more if you count partially employed). This raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery, given that personal consumption accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP. Read more...

Market Update 01-25-10

 
Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key -90 (Negative to Neutral)
 
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Inside this week's update...
 
***** 4 high-potential Chinese stocks.
***** Real estate bubble or joint venture financing?
***** Top funds geared to China's growth.
***** Move over Wal-Mart, make room for Wumart.
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Speculation continues to run high on the issue of whether China is experiencing a bubble that threatens investors. Chinese real estate looks hugely overpriced and manufacturing capacity (according to some) has run far in excess of potential demand.
On the political front, an argument has erupted between the Chinese government and Google. Google claims China hacked the email accounts of some of its customers, who coincidentally were human rights crusaders.
Read more...

Google's empty threat 01-25-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key -90 (Negative to Neutral)
 
-------------------------------------
Inside this week's update...
 
***** 4 high-potential Chinese stocks.
***** Real estate bubble or joint venture financing?
***** Top funds geared to China's growth.
***** Move over Wal-Mart, make room for Wumart.
------------------------------------
 
Speculation continues to run high on the issue of whether China is experiencing a bubble that threatens investors. Chinese real estate looks hugely overpriced and manufacturing capacity (according to some) has run far in excess of potential demand.
On the political front, an argument has erupted between the Chinese government and Google. Google claims China hacked the email accounts of some of its customers, who coincidentally were human rights crusaders.
Read more...

Mid-Week Update 11-18-09

As we head into holiday shopping time, third-quarter earnings season is coming to a close with 95 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported. There have been many upside surprises (80 percent), but as consumer spending and the underlying economy have remained weak – most have been due to maneuvering by management, including inventory controls and cost cutting, as well as lowered analyst expectations.  Read more...

Likely Losers

As inflation heats up, don’t even think about buying these stocks

 
Short term, stocks may have a few upside hi-jinks left (see Marketpulse). Longer term, though, we’re likely facing a broad trading range in which only a relative handful of stocks will earn you money in real terms. The others will leave you poorer than when you started. Over the next 10 years, avoiding these stocks will be critical to protecting your investment health.
 
And be forewarned: these lemons will include many stocks that might seem on the surface like can’t-lose propositions—wellknown companies with rock-solid profit growth that nonetheless will prove to be stock market duds.
 
Let’s look in more detail at what the future likely holds.
 
A broad trading range. Stocks will be protected on the downside by rising profits. Why are we so sure profits will be strong? Because in today’s leveraged, high-debt world, economic growth has become an absolute necessity.
Read more...

Ultra-Fast Growers

With these companies, love means never having to say you’re slowing

 
For a stock-picker, happiness is finding that special stock that looks capable of generating rapid earnings growth for years to come. It doesn’t matter if it’s a drug company or a computer maker or an energy stock—if it can sustain rapid growth, it’s a keeper.
 
In this issue we present a handful of these potent pleasure producers. Call it our Valentine’s Day gift to you. But our intent isn’t to create a warm and fuzzy feeling—it’s to ensure that your portfolio will thrive no matter what the future holds. For rapid sustainable earnings growth is the one constant that equates to true and reliable investment success in any market environment. In good times, fast growers still pull ahead of the crowd. And when times get tougher—as they may become—they can be all that pull you through.
 
For some lessons in tough-times investing, go back to the mid-1970s and early 1980s. If in mid-1976 you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500, by 1982 your investment was worth only about $7,500 after inflation.
Read more...