America

Market Update 02-22-10

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -93 (Neutral to Negative)

The two most important developments that came to light this past weekend both occurred within the energy sector, a sector which is also a key indicator of economic health.

On the global level, we had a report that oil consumption in the U.S. fell in January to its lowest level since 1998. We can interpret this drop in several ways.

Most of the recent decline came in the demand for distillates, including diesel fuel. Diesel fuel, which is used in trucking, railways, and other forms of mass transit, is particularly sensitive to economic activity. The more goods we produce, the more transportation fuel gets consumed and vice versa. In fact, UCLA has recently created a Pulse of Commerce Index based on real-time diesel consumption by the American trucking industry.

Diesel consumption has a very good record as an indicator of industrial production. Unfortunately, this means the drop in January's consumption figures suggests that industrial output is slowing as well.

To be fair, the 3-month moving average for this index is considered more reliable than the monthly data, and the 3-month MA is up. December saw a big increase in consumption, so perhaps January's dip is really just a brief correction. Nonetheless, another drop in February would call the U.S. economic recovery into question.Read more...

Market Update 02-07-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -70 (Neutral-to-Negative)
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Inside this week's update...
***** Can't read China's poker face?
***** China tells its people to “buy gold.”
***** The two greatest investment opportunities for the next decade.
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China is a hot topic these days, and rightly so. It's the storm cloud gathering over our backyard. And as much as we try to reassure ourselves it will blow over, it's time to move the party indoors - or perhaps start planting seeds.
 
Of course, there are always deniers. Recently, we heard a short seller suggest that China's real estate market was in a bubble on the grounds that the nation was building commercial space equal to 25 square feet for every citizen – as if that was excessive.
 
Of course, that building program won't be completed for another couple of years. More to the point, in the U.S. we have more than 400 square feet of commercial real estate per person. So 25 sq. feet doesn't seem that ambitious for a nation that's fast becoming the world's factory floor.
 
Sure, a few cities in China that could accidentally find themselves with too much space for rent. It happens. But don't think that means the nation as a whole is becoming overbuilt.
 
One thing we know for certain is that China maintains an inscrutable poker face. It's a tough read.
Read more...

Market Update 01-25-10

 
Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key -90 (Negative to Neutral)
 
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Inside this week's update...
 
***** 4 high-potential Chinese stocks.
***** Real estate bubble or joint venture financing?
***** Top funds geared to China's growth.
***** Move over Wal-Mart, make room for Wumart.
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Speculation continues to run high on the issue of whether China is experiencing a bubble that threatens investors. Chinese real estate looks hugely overpriced and manufacturing capacity (according to some) has run far in excess of potential demand.
On the political front, an argument has erupted between the Chinese government and Google. Google claims China hacked the email accounts of some of its customers, who coincidentally were human rights crusaders.
Read more...

Market Update 01-04-10

Short-Term Key: Positive
Long-Term Key: - 95 (Negative-to-Neutral)
 
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Inside this New Year's update...
 
***** America loses control of its fate.
***** A rundown of key commodities for this year.
***** Currencies that will outperform the dollar.
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Typically at this time of year, investors try to step back a little and look at the big picture. Of course, as one of our readers, the big picture should be familiar ground to you. Nonetheless, some pretty important stuff is emerging from over the horizon that warrants another look.
The big story of 2009 and indeed the entire 2000s has been the rise of the developing world over the United States. A number of trends evidence this shift. You can see this has occurred by looking at changing figures on the supply, demand, and price of oil.
Today, U.S. oil consumption remains close to what it was ten years ago. Yet oil prices are four times higher.
Read more...

Weekly Update 11-30-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -57 (Neutral)
 
A few weeks ago, 60 Minutes aired a story about one of the most polluted towns in China. The town is in the business of importing electronic waste (old computer monitors, cell phones, etc.) from the U.S. and melting it down to recover valuable metals.
Read more...

Weekly Update 11-09-09

Three seemingly disparate news items last week strongly suggest that the investment world is bifurcating into commodity and non-commodity investments – or if you will long-term winners and long-term losers.

First, India's central bank announced that it had bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund. That's half of the total amount the IMF had planned on selling. For a relatively small central bank to buy that much in one fell swoop is a big deal. It promotes gold from the status of a “barbaric relic” to that of an alternative reserve currency. Moreover, it leaves China – and other Central Banks – with egg on their face.

If India does not buy the rest (and they have not ruled that out) it is almost certain other Central Banks, Sovereign Wealth funds, all those who are underinvested in precious metals to join a prospective scramble for gold et al. that far exceeds what the IMF is willing to sell. No wonder. Money supply in so-called non-inflationary countries have climbed 15 fold in the past generation or so while the total value of all above-ground gold has only doubled.

But we are not just bullish on precious metals. The second announcement was Warren Buffett's biggest investment of his career...Read more...

Market Update 09-08-09

Stocks spent much of last week in the red, although a relief rally occurred on Friday heading into the long holiday weekend and we’re getting follow through today. The trading last week was characterized by the same pattern we seen repeatedly in recent months, with a step up in volume on pullbacks and rallies taking place on light volume. This is a trend that may persist for a while, but historically such action results in a sizeable decline.
 
We’re seeing a noticeable change in the tone of the market, with financial stocks surrendering their leadership role. Moreover, our work indicates that these same shares are likely to be among the market’s worst performers. Typically, when a group swings from leaders to laggards it marks the beginning of the end for rallies.
 
We likewise have small cap shares, which had been far and above the market leaders, starting to trail the blue chips on the upside and surrender more on the downside. Again, that’s a sign of a rally that’s not only long in the tooth, but one that’s poised for a decent-sized correction.
 
One likely suspect for triggering the expected decline in stocks is the U.S. dollar, which has fallen through a key support level today.
Read more...