Australia

Market Update 07-27-10

The results of the stress tests on EU banks, meant to assure the public that the banks have enough capital to survive if the debt crisis worsens, are out. More than 90 banks were tested, and with the exception of 7, all passed. Going in, as the tests were meant to be a calming pill for investors, the vast majority of the banks were expected to pass, so the results were no surprise. As in the case with the U.S. bank stress tests more than a year ago, there’s plenty of skepticism whether the stress tests were rigorous enough or were they merely for show. For example, what would happen in the event of a sovereign debt default—the scenario that most fear could trigger a full blown financial tsunami—was not even tested. The banks that failed (five Spanish savings banks, an already nationalized German mortgage lender and Greece’s ATEbank) will have to raise €3.5 billion total over a period of time still to be determined.

The euro has rallied in July after falling to a four-year low in June, on some signs that European economies aren’t as bad as feared and the beleaguered countries like Greece, Spain, and Portugal appear to have satisfied debt obligations for the time being. The stress test results have been treated as positive reinforcement, even though their execution was likely flawed (or not “stressful” enough).  Read more...

Mid-Week Updat 07-21-10

Earnings season is well in swing now, and companies have generally been beating analysts’ expectations. A fifth of S&P 500 companies have reported thus far, and over 80 percent have beaten estimates. While this can be read in two ways given that many expectations had been lowered heading into reporting season, some earnings releases leave no doubt in terms of their strength.
 
One such strong earnings report was from Growth Portfolio’s Apple (AAPL) which reported another tremendous quarter after the market’s close yesterday.  The consumer technology franchise collected $15.7 billion in revenue during its fiscal third quarter, easily besting analysts’ estimates of $14.75 billion and $6 billion or 61 percent better than the same period last year.
Read more...

Market Update 07-06-10

Over the past week, weaker than expected employment and other economic data here in the U.S. has lead to significant pressure on U.S. markets. Emerging indices along with industrial metals, shaken by the decline in China’s June Service PMI that followed a slowdown in its manufacturing, were also weak last week, but rallied yesterday; altogether, they were markedly stronger than the U.S. indices, reflecting a stronger growth in the developing world.

Australia will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5 percent for the second straight month. With interest rates having been raised six times since last October and global economic recovery appearing to slow down, the Royal Bank of Australia noted justification for standing pat for now. The central bank also stated today that consumer spending and business investment were expanding, helping to alleviate some concerns of slowdown in the country. The Aussie dollar declined last week, also on slow-down concerns.Read more...

Market Update 06-15-10

Ameliorating worries that economic growth had slowed down, the latest reports out of China indicate that the economic giant has kept up its strong momentum. Last week, data showed that international trade surged, with exports in particular blowing away consensus expectations. Industrial production and retail sales also showed improvements as well. This positive data form China has calmed market fears, helping equities in both developed and developing markets rebound.
 
May's numbers for China inflation, however, showed the largest increase in 19 months. Property prices climbed more than 12 percent on a year-on-year basis. While it’s getting clear now that China’s government actions (e.g. raising bank reserve ratio requirements and raising interest rates and certain taxes) haven't stopped the torrid growth in the country as the markets have feared, the future course of action is, of course, unknown. Besides revisiting actions already taken, Beijing could very well finally decide to revalue their currency, especially now that exports have shown robust recovery and domestic prices continue to climb.
 
And on that front, the U.S. continues to pressure China to unpeg the yuan from the dollar.
Read more...

Striving for Stability: 06-10-10

U.S.. stocks hit a new closing low this past Monday, bringing the decline in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 to about 14.5 percent in six weeks. Monday's decline marked a continuation from a grim Friday, when the market tumbled because of a very weak monthly jobs report. The Labor Dept. said payrolls increased by a solid 431,000 in April. The bad news: Temporary Census workers accounted for almost all of the gain. The market has since moved higher again, aided by today's strong advance.
 
Stocks rallied today, with the Dow Jones industrials up 273 points, after economic reports from China, Japan and Australia indicated accelerating growth. China had its biggest increase in exports in six years. And the European Central Bank boosted its forecast for euro-zone growth this year. But the new ECB number for 2010 is only 1 percent, with 1.2 percent for 2011.
 

There are indications that the European situation is beginning to stabilize. But a key test remains: What will happen when more bad news comes out, as it inevitably will? Last Friday's steep market decline was partly attributable to comments by government officials in Hungary that a government debt default was possible there.Read more...

Market Update 06-08-10

This week, some significant monetary policy developments with global ramifications are expected. European central bankers will be meeting later this week to set interest rates and likely to discuss containing the debt crisis plaguing the region.
Meanwhile, China will release the latest data on industrial production, fixed-asset investment, and money supply. If results show higher than desired growth, China may need to take additional tightening steps, indicating to the market that it needs to slow its growth. If the data comes at lower-than-expected levels, however, the markets may interpret it as more signs that growth in China is already slowing – and that might, in turn, lead to more turmoil. This might be a case of “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” blues, brought on by the global economic jitters.
Almost any news leads to turmoil these days; with better economic data largely disregarded.
Read more...

Market Update 06-02-10

With all the gloom and doom surrounding Europe, Germany, the largest and one of the sounder EU economies, looks to be doing better. The latest numbers there showed that unemployment fell sharply as exports grew, helped by the lower euro. The number of officially unemployed Germans now stands at 3.25 million (for a 7.7 percent rate), the lowest level since the end of 2008. However, the dark cloud hovering over the entire European region could keep business confidence low despite an otherwise relatively strong economy, confirmed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) recently upgraded 2010 and 2011 growth forecast for Germany; GDP growth next year is expected to be in the order of 2.1 percent, higher than average for Europe (which is still optimistically expected to be 1.8 percent).
Speculation is stirring that China may be reviewing its holding of euro assets, speculations that the Chinese have been quick to deny, stating that China will not pare its European investments. While the assurance from China may be a ploy to prevent potentially triggering a massive selloff and thereby eroding the value of its holdings, the fact remains that there simply aren’t too many alternatives to the euro. The U.S.
Read more...

Market Update 05-26-10

The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently upgraded its global growth forecasts for this year and next on the basis of continued strong growth in China and other emerging economies leading the way. The OECD calls for an acceleration to 4.6 percent growth globally, (largely agreeing with the IMF’s growth forecast upgrade last month to 4.2 percent). The organization now predicts that its 30 member countries will grow 2.7 percent this year, up from the 1.9 percent rate forecasted six months ago.

We continue to see dichotomies between the developed economies and the emerging economies. The developed nations, though they are economically more advanced, are lagging behind their up-and-coming counterparts in their pace of recovery from the recession. The ongoing European debt crisis and the ensuing market rout are signs that this situation will continue.

While many emerging countries are raising interest rates, signaling the resurfacing of inflationary pressure on the back of robust growth, developed countries (with the exception of Australia and perhaps Canada, which is poised to raise rates next week) are maintaining rock-bottom interest rates due to sluggish recoveries; high leverage in developed countries also could limit the expansion. In light of the more optimistic OECD outlook for the world, it’s an indictment of the eurozone that the forecast for the region was barely changed.Read more...

Midweek Update/Stock Spotlight

Shares of electronic payment processor Visa (V) have been punished over the last 3 trading days (ended yesterday) after the U.S. Senate included limits on debit-card fees in its version of the financial overhaul bill. Visa, which owns and operates the world’s largest electronic payment network, is at the center of proposed regulation on interchange fees – a large component of fees charges to merchants for utilizing credit and debit cards.
 
Illinois Senator Richard Durbin successfully included the measure (after several failed attempts in years past) which limits debit card interchange, or “swipe” fees that are charged to merchants, and gives the Federal Reserve the authority to make the final decision. The fees are charged in connection with the acceptance of payment cards, and while Visa administers the collection and remittance of these fees, the processor generally doesn’t receive a portion of them. Visa is, however, involved in setting the default rate, with its aim to make it appealing to both merchant and card issuer to use credit and debit cards. If the fee is too high, merchants won’t accept the payments cards; if the fee is too low, it’s less worthwhile for card issuers to offer cards at all.
 
The fees will certainly not disappear completely, and it remains to be seen how much of a change the Fed would institute (if the measure is included in the final bill).
Read more...

Market Update 05-12-10

This was a wild week. The worries about the future of the European Union moved into panic mode over the growing crisis and concerns that the worsening credit crunch could choke the economy. Investors became more concerned about their European investments after the European Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates at their current level and the ensuing comment of the ECB President Trichet of not even discussing buying government bonds to stem the crisis. Last Thursday, the Dow closed down 347 points – and that was after bouncing back from the biggest intraday drop ever, the drop that took some blue chips down 30 percent and more. At one point during the day, the Dow was down by roughly 1,000 points.
Prompted by the euro’s slide and plunging confidence, however, the EU and IMF got together over the weekend and put together a $1 trillion loan package plus a sovereign debt purchase program to address the debt crisis overrunning Europe. This worked to calm investors’ fears and lead to monster rallies in equity markets around the world on Monday, with markets in Portugal, Italy, and Spain (feared to be the next countries to go into crisis mode) posting double digit gains. Worldwide stocks gained about 5 percent as a whole.
Read more...