China

Market Update 02-22-10

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -93 (Neutral to Negative)

The two most important developments that came to light this past weekend both occurred within the energy sector, a sector which is also a key indicator of economic health.

On the global level, we had a report that oil consumption in the U.S. fell in January to its lowest level since 1998. We can interpret this drop in several ways.

Most of the recent decline came in the demand for distillates, including diesel fuel. Diesel fuel, which is used in trucking, railways, and other forms of mass transit, is particularly sensitive to economic activity. The more goods we produce, the more transportation fuel gets consumed and vice versa. In fact, UCLA has recently created a Pulse of Commerce Index based on real-time diesel consumption by the American trucking industry.

Diesel consumption has a very good record as an indicator of industrial production. Unfortunately, this means the drop in January's consumption figures suggests that industrial output is slowing as well.

To be fair, the 3-month moving average for this index is considered more reliable than the monthly data, and the 3-month MA is up. December saw a big increase in consumption, so perhaps January's dip is really just a brief correction. Nonetheless, another drop in February would call the U.S. economic recovery into question.Read more...

Market Update 02-16-10

The European Union’s plans for aiding the ailing Greek economy continue to dominate the financial headlines this week. Last Thursday, EU member states pledged to come to Greece’s rescue—should they ask for it—without offering solid details on an aid package. That news settled equity markets while simultaneously hurting rather than helping the euro. The news also buoyed precious metals.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 02-10-10

Earnings season is well underway with two thirds of S&P 500 companies already having reported. It appears that fourth quarter numbers are even better than what most analysts had anticipated, with roughly three quarters of those reporting having exceeded analysts’ expectations.
 
However, even with estimate-beating numbers, the market has not cheered results like we saw during 2009’s historic rally. This is likely due to the continued stagnant sales in developed countries where consumers are still in a state of shock following the recession (and continued high unemployment). However, those companies that have a strong presence outside of the developed world, or aren’t exposed to the consumer market, are now in the best position to take advantage of the continued global recovery.
 
Take Coca Cola (KO), for example, which is part of our Growth Portfolio. Yesterday the company announced that its net income had risen 55 percent to $1.54 billion, or 66 cents a share, from $995 million a year earlier. We see signs of the recovery, not so much in the increased net income, but in improvements in its top-line sales. Coke’s net revenues were up 5.4 percent year-over-year to $7.51 billion.
Read more...

Market Update 02-07-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -70 (Neutral-to-Negative)
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Inside this week's update...
***** Can't read China's poker face?
***** China tells its people to “buy gold.”
***** The two greatest investment opportunities for the next decade.
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China is a hot topic these days, and rightly so. It's the storm cloud gathering over our backyard. And as much as we try to reassure ourselves it will blow over, it's time to move the party indoors - or perhaps start planting seeds.
 
Of course, there are always deniers. Recently, we heard a short seller suggest that China's real estate market was in a bubble on the grounds that the nation was building commercial space equal to 25 square feet for every citizen – as if that was excessive.
 
Of course, that building program won't be completed for another couple of years. More to the point, in the U.S. we have more than 400 square feet of commercial real estate per person. So 25 sq. feet doesn't seem that ambitious for a nation that's fast becoming the world's factory floor.
 
Sure, a few cities in China that could accidentally find themselves with too much space for rent. It happens. But don't think that means the nation as a whole is becoming overbuilt.
 
One thing we know for certain is that China maintains an inscrutable poker face. It's a tough read.
Read more...

Market Update 01-25-10

 
Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key -90 (Negative to Neutral)
 
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Inside this week's update...
 
***** 4 high-potential Chinese stocks.
***** Real estate bubble or joint venture financing?
***** Top funds geared to China's growth.
***** Move over Wal-Mart, make room for Wumart.
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Speculation continues to run high on the issue of whether China is experiencing a bubble that threatens investors. Chinese real estate looks hugely overpriced and manufacturing capacity (according to some) has run far in excess of potential demand.
On the political front, an argument has erupted between the Chinese government and Google. Google claims China hacked the email accounts of some of its customers, who coincidentally were human rights crusaders.
Read more...

Market Update 01-12-10

Earnings season began with Alcoa reporting its results yesterday. Traditionally, it’s the report from this aluminum giant and the Dow Industrials member that marks the start of the season – and this time, the season certainly did not start with a high note.
 
Alcoa earnings disappointed – the largest U.S. aluminum producer’s profit trailed estimates, despite strong metal prices. High energy prices were one of the main culprits.
 
Higher energy prices were also behind the widened U.S. trade deficit reported for the month of November. The lower dollar helped U.S. companies to sell abroad; the overall increase in exports was achieved for the seventh month in a row. The size of the increase, 0.9 percent, to $138.2 billion, reflected increasing overseas demand for food and American-made automobiles and semiconductors.
 
Signs of recovery, however, are still few and far apart.
Read more...

Market Update 01-11-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -95 (Negative-to-Neutral)
 
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Inside this week's update...
 
***** China's new solar initiative.
***** 3 ways to profit from silver's bright future.
***** Keeping an eye on our Master Key.
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If you read the New York Times last weekend, you may have noticed an article on China's new foray into the business of solar collectors.
Solar collection is a form of solar energy. However, rather than use photovoltaic panels to convert light directly into electricity, solar collection uses hundreds of thousands of mirrors (called heliostats) spread over a wide area to concentrate the sun's rays on tanks of water.
Read more...

Market Update 01-04-10

Short-Term Key: Positive
Long-Term Key: - 95 (Negative-to-Neutral)
 
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Inside this New Year's update...
 
***** America loses control of its fate.
***** A rundown of key commodities for this year.
***** Currencies that will outperform the dollar.
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Typically at this time of year, investors try to step back a little and look at the big picture. Of course, as one of our readers, the big picture should be familiar ground to you. Nonetheless, some pretty important stuff is emerging from over the horizon that warrants another look.
The big story of 2009 and indeed the entire 2000s has been the rise of the developing world over the United States. A number of trends evidence this shift. You can see this has occurred by looking at changing figures on the supply, demand, and price of oil.
Today, U.S. oil consumption remains close to what it was ten years ago. Yet oil prices are four times higher.
Read more...

Mid-Week Update 12-09-09

In 2008, tight lending conditions hurt farmers’ ability to take on loans – preventing them not only from making capital expenditures on things like tractors and other machinery, but also hurting their ability to buy fertilizer. As demand weakened, fertilizer companies, including our Mosaic (MOS) and Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) took it on the chin with shares losing more than two-thirds of their value in some cases.
 
With the supply-demand balance out of whack, Mosaic responded quickly – announcing as far back as December 2008 that it was prepared to significantly reduce its phosphate and potash output to combat weak demand.
 
Despite the sharp decline in total sales, margins and earnings per share, Mosaic’s financial position has remained strong. We believe the company will emerge strong from the economic downturn. Moreover, it will remain an essential company to own in the resource space as the world population (along with incomes and food demand in the developing world) continues to grow. Mosaic remains a market leader in North America in potash, with a nearly 40 percent market share. More importantly, it’s the second-largest global potash producer, with a global market share of 13%.
Read more...