Mexico

Midweek Update/Stock Spotlight

Shares of electronic payment processor Visa (V) have been punished over the last 3 trading days (ended yesterday) after the U.S. Senate included limits on debit-card fees in its version of the financial overhaul bill. Visa, which owns and operates the world’s largest electronic payment network, is at the center of proposed regulation on interchange fees – a large component of fees charges to merchants for utilizing credit and debit cards.
 
Illinois Senator Richard Durbin successfully included the measure (after several failed attempts in years past) which limits debit card interchange, or “swipe” fees that are charged to merchants, and gives the Federal Reserve the authority to make the final decision. The fees are charged in connection with the acceptance of payment cards, and while Visa administers the collection and remittance of these fees, the processor generally doesn’t receive a portion of them. Visa is, however, involved in setting the default rate, with its aim to make it appealing to both merchant and card issuer to use credit and debit cards. If the fee is too high, merchants won’t accept the payments cards; if the fee is too low, it’s less worthwhile for card issuers to offer cards at all.
 
The fees will certainly not disappear completely, and it remains to be seen how much of a change the Fed would institute (if the measure is included in the final bill).
Read more...

The enduring safety of gold 11-02-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -30 (Neutral) Read more...

Market Update 11-02-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -30 (Neutral)
 
This morning in our office, someone jokingly quipped that with gold over $1,000 an ounce we might have to stop using gold bars as doorstops. I said, “Don't worry, they're insured.”
 
Of course, we don’t actually have gold doorstops, but if we did, the only thing to worry about would be theft. Gold has the unique advantage of being virtually immune to the physical risks that plague other assets.
 
For instance, unlike other commodities, gold will not degrade over time. Its beauty endures in a way that makes ageing film stars and fashion models green with envy. It does not oxidize and corrode like other metals do, nor is it fragile in any way.
 
True, gold's chemical properties can be replicated somewhat using silver or platinum, but neither of these comes as close to gold in attaining the Platonic ideal of timeless beauty.
 
Moreover, the gold supply has remained fairly constant throughout history.
Read more...

Stocks Need a Rest: 05-21-09

In the wake of a powerful two-month rally based on the perception of growing economic stability but not real improvement, it should prove no surprise that the financial markets have entered a well-deserved consolidation phase. It's too soon to say how long or deep the correction will be.

 

Recent news on the economy, both here and overseas, haven't helped. We have a lot more on that below.

As for the stock market itself, one bright spot is that a key measure of investor anxiety continues to decline. The VIX, the foremost volatility index, closed this week below 30 for the first time since Lehman Brothers collapsed last September, filing the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.Read more...

Focus Shifts from Credit to Economy: 10-23-08

Despite loosening credit and cheaper oil, investors continue to look on the dark side. The negative focus is shifting from the credit crisis to the economy itself.

 

Worries that slowing growth will whack corporate earnings sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 down 6.1 percent yesterday alone. Wild price swings continued today, with the Dow Jones industrials trading in a 500-point range.

 

Growth anxiety has increased even though the costs at which banks lend to one another and of what businesses pay for commercial paper have fallen significantly. This is partly in response to the Federal Reserve’s latest move to support the short-term debt market. Even so, investors are still seeking the safety of U.S. government securities, despite poor yields. Ten-year Treasury issues now yield an anemic 3.6 percent.

 Read more...

Do you have this in Beige?...: 06-12-08

Eight times a year the Federal Reserve releases an assessment of economic conditions in its 12 Regional Bank territories. Yesterday we were treated to the latest of these reviews in its Beige Book, so called for the color of its cover.

 

The view from the central bank is that the U.S. economy remained generally weak last month and that higher energy and commodity prices are being passed on to consumers in some areas. The Fed reported that the economy was stable in five regions but described conditions as weak or soft in the other seven regions.

 

No real surprise there, but we’re encouraged that the Fed sees conditions aren’t deteriorating as you might infer from some recent economic reports. Take, for instance, last week’s big jump in the civilian unemployment rate, which sent shutters through the stock market.

 Read more...

Market Update 07-13-09

Short-Term Key: NegativeRead more...

Mid-Week Update 04-29-09

Add swine flu to the list of worries investors have to contend with these days. Or not. The market overall has largely shrugged off the growing number of cases of swine flu reported worldwide. We heard reports including more than 150 deaths in Mexico. Here in the U.S. more than 91 non-fatal cases of flu have been reported so far with only one death, a child brought here from Mexico for treatment. Now the World Health Organization (WHO) has drastically lowered the official number of deaths.Read more...

SAGE SUPPORT 05-07-07

Stocks continued to enjoy a broad-based rally last week, with the Dow gaining just over 1%. But for the first time in a long time, we are finding reasons to question just how long this rally will last. To be clear, we have faith in the long-term bull trend. It’s just that in the short-term we are starting to see grounds for a pause.
 

For example, we notice that the broad market, though rising, has been noticeably trailing the big cap stocks. Excluding year-end variations, the last time we saw the broad market falling behind big caps to this extent was in April 2004. On that occasion, what followed was a trading range which lasted for several months. After that, stocks resumed their advance.

We would not be surprised to see a similar pattern this time. After all, the Dow has moved up sharply over the past few weeks and may be due to take a short rest.

That said, we must stress that there are many positive indicators today, not least of which is sentiment. You may recall that we measure sentiment by comparing the average volume on the Amex with the average volume on the NYSE. Right now, this ratio is at an all-time low, suggesting that enthusiasm for stocks can only go up.Read more...

TRANSPORTS HIT NEW HIGHS 02-05-07

Today’s geopolitical turmoil makes us think about Robert F. Kennedy’s famous rendition of a supposedly Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” Certainly there is a lot of interesting political drama in the world today, in places such as the U.S., Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, the U.K., and many other countries. Even more “interesting” is the appalling violence occurring in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, not to mention natural disasters. We feel sad for the millions of innocent bystanders trying to raise their children in such “interesting” environments.

And speaking of environments, the global environment seems destined to be a lot more interesting in future years too, according to the recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It concludes that human activity will make the world a lot hotter and stormier in coming decades. Drier too, unless you live on a seacoast, in which case you’d better learn how to swim.

In fact, the only thing in the news which seems boring these days is the stock market. Shares are in an uptrend, which is unlikely to break anytime soon. That’s good news for you, as an investor, although it makes our job as commentators more difficult. (Bear markets are so much easier to write about.) But we don’t really mind, of course. As long as you’re making money, we’re happy to work a little harder. So sit back, put your feet up, and bask in the comfort of today’s rising prices, while we natter on about other pressing matters …Read more...