United States

Market Update 02-22-10

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -93 (Neutral to Negative)

The two most important developments that came to light this past weekend both occurred within the energy sector, a sector which is also a key indicator of economic health.

On the global level, we had a report that oil consumption in the U.S. fell in January to its lowest level since 1998. We can interpret this drop in several ways.

Most of the recent decline came in the demand for distillates, including diesel fuel. Diesel fuel, which is used in trucking, railways, and other forms of mass transit, is particularly sensitive to economic activity. The more goods we produce, the more transportation fuel gets consumed and vice versa. In fact, UCLA has recently created a Pulse of Commerce Index based on real-time diesel consumption by the American trucking industry.

Diesel consumption has a very good record as an indicator of industrial production. Unfortunately, this means the drop in January's consumption figures suggests that industrial output is slowing as well.

To be fair, the 3-month moving average for this index is considered more reliable than the monthly data, and the 3-month MA is up. December saw a big increase in consumption, so perhaps January's dip is really just a brief correction. Nonetheless, another drop in February would call the U.S. economic recovery into question.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 02-10-10

Earnings season is well underway with two thirds of S&P 500 companies already having reported. It appears that fourth quarter numbers are even better than what most analysts had anticipated, with roughly three quarters of those reporting having exceeded analysts’ expectations.
 
However, even with estimate-beating numbers, the market has not cheered results like we saw during 2009’s historic rally. This is likely due to the continued stagnant sales in developed countries where consumers are still in a state of shock following the recession (and continued high unemployment). However, those companies that have a strong presence outside of the developed world, or aren’t exposed to the consumer market, are now in the best position to take advantage of the continued global recovery.
 
Take Coca Cola (KO), for example, which is part of our Growth Portfolio. Yesterday the company announced that its net income had risen 55 percent to $1.54 billion, or 66 cents a share, from $995 million a year earlier. We see signs of the recovery, not so much in the increased net income, but in improvements in its top-line sales. Coke’s net revenues were up 5.4 percent year-over-year to $7.51 billion.
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Market Update 02-07-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -70 (Neutral-to-Negative)
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Inside this week's update...
***** Can't read China's poker face?
***** China tells its people to “buy gold.”
***** The two greatest investment opportunities for the next decade.
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China is a hot topic these days, and rightly so. It's the storm cloud gathering over our backyard. And as much as we try to reassure ourselves it will blow over, it's time to move the party indoors - or perhaps start planting seeds.
 
Of course, there are always deniers. Recently, we heard a short seller suggest that China's real estate market was in a bubble on the grounds that the nation was building commercial space equal to 25 square feet for every citizen – as if that was excessive.
 
Of course, that building program won't be completed for another couple of years. More to the point, in the U.S. we have more than 400 square feet of commercial real estate per person. So 25 sq. feet doesn't seem that ambitious for a nation that's fast becoming the world's factory floor.
 
Sure, a few cities in China that could accidentally find themselves with too much space for rent. It happens. But don't think that means the nation as a whole is becoming overbuilt.
 
One thing we know for certain is that China maintains an inscrutable poker face. It's a tough read.
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Market Update 01-05-10

People are by nature optimistic. This point is underlined with each reset of the calendar. The can-do spirit, best exemplified in personal resolutions, mostly of the diet and exercise variety, is fresh in everyone’s mind. Likewise, the feeling that better times are on the way is reflexive. This psychology is at least partially behind stocks’ tendency to rise in the early part of the year. Strong stock market returns in year just ended certainly don’t hurt either.

So it’s not surprising that we started the trading year off with a bang yesterday. Further signs of strong economic growth in emerging economies, namely China, plus an improvement here in the U.S. in the Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index and with factory orders have helped to bolster investor confidence.

Less than bullish readings yesterday on construction spending and today’s surprisingly large decline in November pending home sales, which dropped 16 percent in contrast to expectations for only a 0.2 percent decline, have largely been ignored.

Stocks should continue to have an upward bias for the near term, although positive returns are by no means a slam dunk. There’s plenty more economic data due out this week, but the real bellwether for the U.S. economy will be the employment numbers to be released on Friday. A surprise reading either way could set the tone for the market for weeks to come.Read more...

Market Update 01-04-10

Short-Term Key: Positive
Long-Term Key: - 95 (Negative-to-Neutral)
 
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Inside this New Year's update...
 
***** America loses control of its fate.
***** A rundown of key commodities for this year.
***** Currencies that will outperform the dollar.
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Typically at this time of year, investors try to step back a little and look at the big picture. Of course, as one of our readers, the big picture should be familiar ground to you. Nonetheless, some pretty important stuff is emerging from over the horizon that warrants another look.
The big story of 2009 and indeed the entire 2000s has been the rise of the developing world over the United States. A number of trends evidence this shift. You can see this has occurred by looking at changing figures on the supply, demand, and price of oil.
Today, U.S. oil consumption remains close to what it was ten years ago. Yet oil prices are four times higher.
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Market Update 12-01-09

Markets the world over had a scare last week when Dubai World, the Persian Gulf-based real estate outfit that is presumably backed by the emirate of Dubai sought to defer payment on its debt for six months. The fear was that Dubai was another domino to fall in the global financial crisis, which could have ripple effects throughout the world’s financial system.
 
With little in the way of energy assets, the city-state of Dubai has risen out of the desert sands in recent years to become a major financial services, tourist destination and logistics hub. The building boom there in recent years, which would put the Las Vegas casino builders to shame, has busted with a precipitous drop in real estate values and an office vacancy rate of 40 percent.
 
This week, calm has been restored as the size of the debt problem has been assessed to be much lower than previously believed and as Abu Dhabi, Dubai’s larger neighbor, is stepping in to save the day.
 
The tale of excess in Dubai didn’t happen in isolation and there could well be others like it to follow. But a key takeaway from the story is that interest rates will remain extremely low for the foreseeable future.
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Weekly Update 11-30-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -57 (Neutral)
 
A few weeks ago, 60 Minutes aired a story about one of the most polluted towns in China. The town is in the business of importing electronic waste (old computer monitors, cell phones, etc.) from the U.S. and melting it down to recover valuable metals.
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Weekly Update 11-23-09

Some of today's brightest investors have decided the world has gone crazy. To them, it makes no sense that commodity prices are rising so sharply while economic growth remains sluggish. Something is not as it appears, and they've decided the impostor is China.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 11-04-09

Yesterday, Warren Buffett stormed back into the headlines with the largest deal in his 44-year career at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway. The “Oracle of Omaha” announced that he was buying the 77.4 percent of Burlington Northern Santa Fe that he didn’t already own – paying $26 billion or $100 per share of the railroad (a 30 percent premium over the previous day’s closing price), and assuming roughly $10 billion in Burlington debt. Including his previous holding in Burlington, this is a $44 billion investment for Mr. Buffett, and is quite a bet for the investment icon. Read more...

Market Update 10-20-09

The dollar continues to work its way lower, prompting people to shift more assets into riskier investments such as stocks. This is a trade that could persist for a time, and indeed, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government are content to let it continue as it buys time for banks to repair their balance sheets and hopefully restores confidence in our economy. The policy isn’t without its risks, however and we ultimately see it ending badly.
 
The greenback’s slide is a tonic for commodities. Gold has notched even higher highs, for instance, but that’s really just a symptom of the problem. The real danger lies in the escalating costs of basic economic inputs. Most notable of these is crude oil, which topped $79 a barrel yesterday.
 
From a technical perspective, oil prices have broken out of their trading range, which is likely to bring in more buyers for crude. With very little in the way of overhead resistance to keep prices in check, we could well wake up one morning soon to see oil prices once again in triple digits. Even without further increases, prices have moved up far enough so as to act as a governor on economic growth.
 
Make no mistake, despite the strength in stock prices during the past seven months, the economy is still in no great shakes.
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