Buybacks

Mid-Week Update 04-28-10

The earnings season excitement continues, with companies largely beating Wall Street estimates. Our recommendations have been no exception, so far. However, besting estimates doesn’t necessarily mean that a stock will rally – and this quarter we’ve seen many companies report impressive results for the period, only to see the stock fall in the subsequent market session.

One such example is cell phone chip-maker and Growth Portfolio member Qualcomm (QCOM), whose stock has been on a rollercoaster ride since the company’s last quarterly report in January. In that instance, the company reported a solid quarter, but its guidance (based on weaker demand from Europe), left something to be desired in the eyes of analysts. We agreed, but saw the short-term weakness in the stock as a buying opportunity. A couple months later, the company revised its guidance – essentially back to its original forecast – based on better than expected demand from its developed economy markets. The stock, as you might expect, gapped up.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 03-03-10

Qualcomm (QCOM), the newest addition to the Growth Portfolio and a part of our FundFinds Portfolio, is a tech franchise whose business revolves around wireless technology, in particular, CDMA, the heart of the new generation of cell phones. After posting disappointing earnings guidance in January, the company had some goods news this week. Read more...

Mid-Week Update 10-28-09

Earnings season rolls on. Despite still less-than-compelling economic readings, earnings reports have largely been good. With exactly half of the S&P 500 companies already having reported, we’ve seen 75 percent of them meet or beat expectations. Granted, many of these upbeat results stem from cost-cutting rather than strong top-line results, but we’ll take whatever we can get. Read more...

Updating the Best from the Brainiest

All the stocks in FundFinds remain buys

 
FundFinds is a stock portfolio with a difference. We don’t look just for stocks we like—we first look for funds we like and then seek out the newest, or biggest, or most unusual of their holdings. Next we evaluate those holdings using our own stringent criteria. If they make the grade, they join FundFinds.
 
Using this approach, which lets us benefit from the expertise of top fund managers, we’ve accumulated a diversified group of 16 stocks. They all remain buys.
 
Our first picks, from Sequoia fund, were giant pharmaceutical chain Walgreen and rug maker Mohawk Industries.
Read more...

Safe and Sound

Good for all: protecting the U.S. and finding financial security, too

 
From locusts to the Black Plague to the endless clash of armies, the world always has been rife with risk and danger. Still, it’s not being egocentric to argue that today’s world is more vulnerable than ever before to disaster, both natural and manmade. Concurrently, we’re also obsessed as perhaps never before with seeking protection against catastrophe.
 
Sept. 11, 2001, of course, ratcheted up our awareness of one type of disaster, terrorism, in a big way and made security a front-burner issue. Recent events like the tragic bombings in Madrid have reinforced such concerns. But Mother Nature also has been serving up her own brand of terrorism in recent years, inflicting massive damage, from record heat waves to record floods.
 
A major reason today’s world is peculiarly vulnerable to onslaughts of all kinds is relentless urbanization. The first chart on p.2 shows changes in the numbers of city dwellers, on both a percentage and absolute basis. In 1960 only about a third of the world’s three billion residents lived in metropolitan areas.
Read more...

Quality at a Discount

ICAP scoops up a lagging oil company and a drug maker

 
On the preceding page, in recognition of the rising level of insecurity in the world, we urged fund investors to make sure they own at least one large-cap growth fund. By the same token, we were eager to add a high-quality large-cap stock or two to our Fund Finds portfolio. As we searched, we stumbled upon a relatively young, small five star-rated Large Cap Value fund: ICAP Select Equity fund (ICSLX). With just a little more than $140 million under management, the fund has been an outstanding performer. It is in the top 10 percent for the category year to date and in the top 11 percent for the past five-year period. The fund selects its holdings from a group of 450 large-cap U.S. and European names, focusing on stocks with attractive valuations, consistent to improving earnings, and clear catalysts for growth, such as new product launches. Recently the fund was featured in an article “Great Funds at Bargain Prices” in SmartMoney.com as one of 58 actively managed funds that have delivered impressive returns at a low cost over the past five years.
 
We’re not recommending that our subscribers buy ICAP Select Equity fund itself, though, for two reasons.
Read more...

Stocks with Leg(g)s

Bold choices from a top-ranked Value fund

 
One of the very best funds in the entire Morningstar universe is the Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX). It has outperformed the S&P 500 for 13 consecutive years, a record unmatched by any other fund. Moreover, it finished in the top 1 percent for its category for the last 10 years, the top 9 percent for the last five years, and the top 2 percent for the last three years. When this fund talks, it obviously pays to listen. (The only reason we don’t own it is its high 1.72 percent expense ratio.)
 
Like any true leader, the fund is willing at times to make bold decisions, and some of its stocks may seem surprising choices for its category, Large Cap Value.
Read more...

Health Care Do’s and Don’t’s

It’s easy to make a case for health care stocks. The U.S. is aging. By 2010, the percentage of Americans over 65 will rise to nearly 14.5, up from below 13 percent today. And worldwide over the next decade—think China—the number of people over 65 will climb by more than a hundred million. If even modest gains in prosperity also occur, the demand for health care should soar.
 
It’s also easy to make a case against health care stocks, at least a lot of them. The health care industry has long benefited from generous government funding. Today, though, with the federal surplus a monstrous deficit and defense grabbing an increasing share of federal dollars, government spending on health care will be squeezed.
 
So what to do? How can you capitalize on a sure trend—an aging population—without getting whip-lashed by governmental mood swings? The answer: steer clear of health care segments most dependent on government spending. Then, pick the best of the rest.
 
Let’s examine health care spending more closely.
Read more...

Swinging for the Fences

Typically, investors’ biggest mistake is to bail out of aggressive bets too early

 
You don’t find the next Microsoft by buying Microsoft. To score a true home run, you’ve got to take a chance on a small company while it’s still small. In this column we will regularly scare up the most promising upstarts and guide you through their formative years. Typically our picks will have capitalizations of around $200 million. After all it’s comparatively easy for a $200 million market cap company to rise fivefold.
 
Why look for such huge returns? To compensate for the higher risk of small-cap investing. Smaller companies usually have higher betas, less seasoned management, a shorter operating history, and fewer product lines than larger companies. But one big success can make up for a handful of disappointments. For instance, if you invested an equal amount in five stocks and four went to zero but the fifth soared tenfold, you’d be up 100 percent on your total investment.
 
For a company to take off in a big way, a spark is needed. One major part of our job is to identify early developments that could constitute such a spark.
Read more...

Mid-Week Update 03-11-09