Company Founded

Mid-Week Update 04-14-10

Earnings season is just getting underway and the first major report out on Monday, from Alcoa, left many investors disappointed. The largest U.S. aluminum producer managed to cut its losses from $497 million during the same period a year prior to $201 million this quarter, but the market expected more from the company’s sales, which grew only 18 percent to $4.89 billion. By contrast, aluminum prices have risen by roughly 50 percent over the last year. Alcoa, a bellwether for the performance of the overall market, given the wide use of its product, did not set the right tone.

However, the outlook improved late yesterday when Intel (INTC), which is part of our Growth Portfolio, reported its first quarter results. By almost all measures, the results were impressive, with Intel having its best first quarter since the company’s founding in 1968. This suggests that other technology companies may be releasing strong figures this quarter as well; but with Intel’s market share of computer processors over 80 percent, the results more importantly serve as a proxy for end demand and perhaps a bellwether for economic health.Read more...

The Tricky Art of Buying Tech

As tech products come down in price, investors need to get a lot pickier

 
The chart below graphically presents the dilemma you face when it comes to investing in tech. Depicting the role information technology has played in the economy over the past eight years, it has two separate lines. As you can see, one line is virtually flat—in fact, it is down a bit from its high point in 2000. The second line, though, rises steeply.
 
The flat line shows the dollar value of tech in the economy. The uptrended line reflects the actual physical presence of tech in the economy—for instance, the number of semiconductors in use. The explanation for why the two lines don’t look the same is simple: we’re using more tech, but prices have been coming down.
 
This, in a nutshell, is why the technology arena is both compelling and tricky for investors. The rising demand for tech products creates an indisputable opportunity.
Read more...

Let’s Hear it for Health

Strong vital signs for a drug benefits manager and a hearing care provider

 
We love buying growth industries, or growth stocks, when they’re out of favor. By holding onto them patiently, you ultimately benefit from growth in earnings and expanding P/Es alike as Wall Street falls in love with the stocks all over again.
 
Right now, with investors busy chasing technology stocks, health care is being spurned. But health care is an undeniable growth area: people are living longer, baby boomers are aging, and pharmaceuticals and various medical products are becoming ever more technologically sophisticated.
 
One stock positioned to benefit is MIM Corp., a pharmacy benefit management (PBM) and specialty pharmaceutical company that partners with managed care organizations and health care providers to control pre-scription drug costs.
Read more...

If You Can Make It There: Cracking Asia’s Tough Markets

Plus the reason all investors should stash away some zero coupon bonds

 
If you can make it there, you’ll make it anywhere.” No, no, not New York. Being successful in New York—at least for an American company—is child’s play compared to grabbing the brass ring in Japan, a country notoriously resistant to business outsiders. But given that Japan has the world’s second-largest economy, one that is starting to show a lot of zip, U.S. companies that figure out how to establish themselves there gain a big edge.
 
Two of our Growth Portfolio picks, AFLAC and Tiffany, have done just that. Even more remarkably, they have flourished in Japan during that country’s worst economy. Both should remain strong growers both in Japan and at home, and both should continue to solidly outperform the U.S. market.
 
AFLAC, known for its hapless but indomitable duck, is the world’s largest seller of cancer insurance.
Read more...

Market Update 05-05-09

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had its latest meeting last week. As expected, no significant policy change resulted from the meeting. The Federal Funds rate remained at virtually zero and the Treasury will continue with the purchase of agency papers and Treasury Securities initiated in March. That the benchmark interest rate remained unchanged is no surprise because it is already as low as can be. The continuation of the security purchase plan could be interpreted either way depending on whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist. Either the FOMC thinks the economy has stabilized enough that no increase is necessary or there’s not enough improvement in the economy to warrant scaling back purchases yet. Read more...

THE 10TH RECESSION 04-13-09

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: +48
 
One day in my freshman year at college, while I sat taking notes in psychology class, my professor made an important point about “rules-of-thumb” and their usefulness in predicting the future. Even though the lecture that day was on developmental psychology and not market psychology, his words apply very well to forecasting how stock prices may behave over the next few months.
 
The professor had asked us to read a chapter in our textbook which stated that children generally start to speak simple words at around 18 months of age. By two to three years of age, they should start using simple two-word utterances, and after three years of age they should be using simple sentences. Those are the “rules-of-thumb” for language acquisition, and if a child falls behind in that schedule, psychologists and doctors take it as a sign the child might be intellectually retarded.

However, in his lecture, the professor pointed out to us that you can't always rely on the textbook. To prove his point, he told us about the 18th century philosopher and statesman, Edmund Burke.
 Read more...

Market Update 03-10-09

Is this the rally we’ve been waiting for? While the markets have been oversold and the buying action today seems to be very strong, we would refrain from calling the bottom just yet. However, one element of a rally is indeed present – the market is reacting to a relatively small piece of good news and is leaving behind most of the negativity of the latest labor numbers, at least for today.

The biggest action today is in the financials, following some rare good news out of the sector. Citigroup’s CEO disclosed that the company has been profitable in the first two months of the year and that its revenues were $19 billion. Of course, the figure doesn’t include potential one-time write-downs which are becoming a tradition, but at least the announcement breaks a string of terrible news out of the finance industry. Read more...

Market Update 11-11-08

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the unemployment rate had risen to 6.5% in October, the highest rate since 1994. More than 1 million American jobs have been lost so far in 2008, and the job loss rate is accelerating- over half of those jobs were lost in August, September and October. Clearly this bad news is confirmation that we're in a recession. The worst of the financial crisis is over, but it will take time for the liquidity injections to work its way through the economy and companies' bottom-lines. In the meantime, Main Street is feeling the full brunt of the crisis.

Read more...