The combined efforts by the Fed and Congress to stimulate and lubricate the economy seemed to work extremely well last week as the S&P rose 4.87%, while the Dow climbed 4.39%. Putting aside any impolite metaphors, what really impressed us were the even bigger gains in the broad market. Indeed, the win:lose ratio last week was on the order of 7:1, which is extremely positive. We had to flip back through out data to 1987 to find a week in which market breadth was stronger.
What’s more, the few cases in history when market breadth was as good or better than last week were all followed by further gains in stock prices. True, there are occasions (1977 in particular) in which high breadth did not signal a full-fledged bull market. Then it signaled the arrival of higher inflation. This time may be similar. While we welcome last week’s market advance, we are pretty sure it was the result of liquidity on a scale greater than we have ever seen, and that higher inflation is in the bag.Read more...