Environmental Issue

Market Update 12-15-09

The rally in the U.S. dollar is back in force today, with the Dollar Index climbing to its highest level since early October. Given how far it has fallen since March, a rally up to its 50-day average—about 2 percent from here—is certainly a possibility. At first blush that doesn’t seem like all that much, but for currencies, such a move in a relatively short span of time is a big deal.
 
The inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks has been extremely high during the past year, so a rising dollar is frequently seen as bad news for equities as it sends the so-called carry trade to the sidelines. Regardless of the dollar’s moves in the coming weeks, the market is likely to trade in a relatively tight range. Technicians see the 1120 area on the S&P as stiff resistance where stocks will likely stall. Likewise, absent some external shock, downside risk in the near term is also likely to be rather muted. Looking on a somewhat longer time horizon, however, there’s ample reason for concern.
 
This morning we had a much worse-than-expected reading on producer prices, signaling that inflation could be back on the table sooner than most would like to admit. At the same time, we also had a surprisingly weak reading on the New York Empire Manufacturing Index of general business conditions.
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Mid-Week Update 06-24-09

As the market begins to roll over, it becomes increasingly important to protect your portfolio. Of course, we advocate holding precious metals, like gold, that will hold their value in both inflationary and deflationary times – but some well positioned stocks should remain cornerstones of your portfolio as well. This type of company should boast a fundamentally stable business and a dividend stream to cushion investors in tough times, but also an element of growth that rewards investors in better times.

In the current market, some utility companies fit the bill. Withthe Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve pulling out all the stops to keep interest rates low, and many utility yields look attractive at current levels. Add in that a market pullback will likely initiate a flight to safety, and selected utilities could also offer substantial capital appreciation.

We don’t recommend going out and buying utilities at will, however, as all are certainly not created equal. Most will provide nice income streams, but the growth of that stream is largely tied to regulated rate increases. As we enter an exceptionally inflationary era, with interest rates rising (at some point), we point you towards those utilities that have an element of growth, so they can not only grow earnings – but grow their dividend payments as well, giving you a positive return in real terms.Read more...

Market Update 08-06-08

50th anniversary of the Helsinki Olympic Games...

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Volume 5, Number 32 

August 6, 2008 

Walk into the Federal Reserve's headquarters on Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC and you'll spy a two-story atrium with dual staircases and a skylight with the outline of an eagle in the glass. Perhaps it's time for Ben Bernanke to replace that noble national symbol with a difference sort of bird: One with the body of a hawk and the head of a dove.

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Weekly Update 05-12-08

Doing the right thing for the wrong reason may seem like an okay plan, but it can backfire. The risk is that once the false reason is exposed, the right thing won’t be done.

The example I’m thinking of is the issue of global warming. Over the past decade, the threat of global warming has become increasingly accepted by mainstream society.

Of course, it has its critics, including those industries that would pay the cost of trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, several studies have recently appeared in prestigious journals such as Science and Nature which suggest global warming could take a lot longer to occur than previously thought. It could be delayed, in fact, by an additional 20 years. Although no one can say for certain exactly how long it will take, the high temperatures of the late 1990s might not be surpassed until 2030. Other findings that complement these studies suggest that the deep oceans are actually getting colder, not warmer.

To us, it has always seemed rather arrogant for science to assume it can know what the climate will be like 100 years from now, when it can’t even predict next month’s weather with any degree of accuracy. The complexity and number of variables involved in this kind of forecasting are too enormous.

This is not to say we are against the idea of a clean environment. But the case for immediately stopping all CO2 emissions is far from conclusive.Read more...

Weekly Update 09-04-07

Bill Clinton with H. Ross Perot, Independent, ...

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In an ideal world, politics and economics would not mix, but even before Bill Clinton’s campaign manager coined the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” politicians found they can win votes by interfering in the markets. Perhaps it’s only fair. After all, voters are quick to blame politicians for economic woes. At any rate, the latest example is the current subprime debacle that has now spread to the credit markets in general and is attracting the attention of politicians.

On Friday, perhaps in a belated attempt to boost his sagging popularity, President Bush announced that reforms were taking place at the Federal Housing Authority that are intended to help reduce foreclosures. While this may help a few homeowners, we doubt it will work as a political gamble.Read more...

Weekly Update 04-23-07

  Georgetown University bu...

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We said we expected new highs in the market, and last week we got them. The S&P rose 2%, above its previous peak. We also have new highs in the Dow Industrials, Transports, and Utilities.

Remarkably, skepticism is still widespread among investors. Consequently, one group that isn’t making new highs is the retail brokerages. That’s because the retail investor remains unconvinced about this bull market.

Typically, one way to profit from a bull market is to buy shares in brokerages. This time it’s a little different. But until investors become more willing to speculate, the retail brokers will likely lag. On the other hand, stocks of large brokers such as Goldman Sachs should do very well. Goldman Sachs and some of the major wire houses are taking advantage of today’s high liquidity and the large number of new issues.Read more...

Weekly Update 02-05-07

Dammam الدمام

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Today’s geopolitical turmoil makes us think about Robert F. Kennedy’s famous rendition of a supposedly Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” Certainly there is a lot of interesting political drama in the world today, in places such as the U.S., Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, the U.K., and many other countries. Even more “interesting” is the appalling violence occurring in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, not to mention natural disasters. We feel sad for the millions of innocent bystanders trying to raise their children in such “interesting” environments.

And speaking of environments, the global environment seems destined to be a lot more interesting in future years too, according to the recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It concludes that human activity will make the world a lot hotter and stormier in coming decades. Drier too, unless you live on a seacoast, in which case you’d better learn how to swim.Read more...

Weekly Update 01-29-07

 Saudi Arabia...

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The most remarkable thing about the market lately is how little changed it is from week to week. Last week was a perfect example. Our Master Key ended at 2.63 – barely altered from 2.61 the week before.

So let’s turn our attention away from the short-term picture, towards something with more significant long-term effects …

THE WACKY LOGIC OF OIL AND POWER

We have been bullish on oil for as long as TCI has been around. Although it’s not the only important commodity in an uptrend today, we believe oil exerts a stronger influence on the market than anything else. Consequently, we felt compelled to comment on how energy was dealt with in President Bush’s State of the Union Address last week.Read more...