Thanksgiving

Market Update 01-20-10

In trading today, the two major Chinese stock indices both declined in response to an official media outlet’s report that some banks have been ordered by authorities to cease lending for the rest of January. This claim was denied by China’s top bank regulator, Liu Minkang. He did say today at the Asia Financial Forum held in Hong Kong that the country's overall credit growth would be restricted to 7.5 trillion yuan in 2010 (compared to last year's record 9.59 trillion yuan) – confirming concerns about lending restrictions on the banks. A separate media report said interest rates will be raised on Friday. China’s central bank had already raised banks’ reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points last week, and investors fear that all these moves will put the brakes on the country’s growth momentum.
 
However, rather than stopping growth cold in its tracks, these tightening measures are meant to tamper growth to prevent overheating. It is also a good sign of robust Chinese economic strength and shows the Chinese government is proactive. If regulators sat on their hands while liquidity continued to increase unchecked, China could very well develop the massive bubbles some analysts had called for.
 
In a government conference this week, Premier Wen Jiabao confirmed China’s stance to enhance governmental macro-economic control to balance stable growth with contained inflation.
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Good Times, Bad Times: 11-25-09

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Market Update 11-24-09

Bagging profits should be a simple lay-up for the bulls during this holiday shortened trading week. Microscopic short-term interest rates, with 3-month Treasury bills now yielding a scant 0.045 percent, and continued softness in the U.S. dollar will aid that quest, encouraging the so-called “carry trade.” Investors are borrowing at essentially no cost and reinvesting the money in potentially higher-returning assets such as stocks. Adding fuel to the fire of the idea that the carry trade is a “can’t lose” proposition is the 65 percent rise equities have enjoyed from their lows. But corrections are inevitable.
 
In reality, the carry trade is a strategy that will work very well until it suddenly stops working, at which point you’re going to see a lot tears and a lot of grief. Most likely it will be a reversal in the dollar’s direction that will get the ball rolling. But the stock market’s unusually strong advance in the absence of any real improvement in the underlying fundamentals has carried valuations to exceedingly high levels, so any pullback in share prices could soon feed on itself.
 
That’s not to say we’re expecting such a scenario to unfold tomorrow. Indeed, we’re in a period of seasonal strength heading into Thanksgiving and lasting all the way through the early going in January.
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Market Update 12-02-08

New York Stock Exchange, New York City.

Image via Wikipedia

Well, it’s official. The National Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER), the non-profit organization tasked with dating business cycles, has declared the economy has been in recession for a year now. That’s the bad news. The good news is the organization is notoriously late to the party. In fact, in many cases they don’t get around to announcing the start of recessions until the economy is close to if not out of recession entirely.Read more...

Market Update 11-23-07

Leeb's Ground-Floor Trader

Weekly Update

November 23, 2007 

The Thanksgiving holiday produced a quiet week in the IPO market, although the overall U.S. stock market experienced heavy volume earlier in the week before closing for Thanksgiving and opening for a low-volume half day on Friday. 

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Market Update 11-16-07

Weekly Update

November 16, 2007 

For stocks in general, the week was not as cheerful.

The credit crisis continues to loom over the U.S. economy, hurting the overall stock market. The S&P 500 has dropped 4.6% in November, and that's despite a powerful rally on Tuesday and a recovery late today. 

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Mid-Weekly Update 11-26-08

  Former Freddie Mac C...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

In light of the market’s wild gyrations in recent months, we’ve decided to introduce a second, mid-week Market Update to keep you apprised of our thinking.

As America readies itself for its annual Thanksgiving Day holiday, investors and consumers alike are no doubt grousing that they have little to be thankful for this year. After all, stocks are on pace to generate their worst annul return on record. And as a host of economic data will attest, including today’s durable goods orders and personal spending figures, the economy is mired in a difficult recession.

But as fearful as the headlines still are, there are just too many positives right now to ignore. Sure the economic data will get worse before it gets better, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel—and we’re confident we’re not mistakenly staring at the lamp on an on-coming train. Read more...

Market Update 11-23-05

  IRS representative Tif...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Weekly Update 

November 23, 2005 

The Bulls remains in control of this market and they're getting a little help from seasonal trends. Blue chip stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, now stand at four-year highs. Although they're moving into overbought territory, they should continue to work their way to at least nominal new highs before hitting a wall.Read more...

Market Update 11-24-04

Thanksgiving Tower looking north from Lane Street.

Image via Wikipedia

Weekly Update 

In our efforts to bring you the best short-term trades, we frequently neglect to look back at our results and toot our own horn. For those of you who haven't been paying close attention to the score, since starting this service in July 2004 we've closed out 20 trades.

Of those trades, 70 percent have been profitable. Moreover, our average gain per closed trade has been almost 24 percent and our average holding period has been just 24 days.

Not content to rest on our laurels though, we're currently examining a number of potential new trades. Our indicators continue to suggest the market will have an upward bias over the next several weeks and we hope to capitalize on that trend.Read more...

THE WILD CARD 11-27-06

The Dow Jones Industrials lost some of its luster last week, as most of us took some time out to celebrate Thanksgiving. The S&P ended the week basically flat. The overall trend in both indices, however, is steeply up with no sign of a market top in sight.

We wish the Transportation Index would join the party, but it still remains below the high of around 5,000 it made earlier in the year. The divergence between it and the Industrials remains in force.

Nonetheless, market breadth is good, and the Party Season is now in full swing, with Santa Claus popping up in just about every TV commercial. These days, it seems you can barely clean out the roasting pan from one turkey before you’re on a mad dash to prepare for the next holiday feast. In such an atmosphere, who has time to think about selling stocks? Consequently, a market correction this time of year is almost unheard of. That doesn’t mean stocks couldn’t fall a tiny bit, say 3% to 5%, as buying pressure ebbs as well, but we doubt we’ll see a full-blown correction while the fairy lights are glowing.

Of course, if any factor could trigger a drop in stocks prices, the most likely candidate is of course …

THE WILD CARD

… our old friend oil.Read more...