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Market Update 03-02-10

The bifurcated economy continues to plod along. The manufacturing segment is doing fairly well thanks in large part to strong export demand, which has risen for seven consecutive months. The service sector, however, continues to struggle.Read more...

Market Update 02-16-10

The European Union’s plans for aiding the ailing Greek economy continue to dominate the financial headlines this week. Last Thursday, EU member states pledged to come to Greece’s rescue—should they ask for it—without offering solid details on an aid package. That news settled equity markets while simultaneously hurting rather than helping the euro. The news also buoyed precious metals.Read more...

Market Update 02-07-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -70 (Neutral-to-Negative)
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Inside this week's update...
***** Can't read China's poker face?
***** China tells its people to “buy gold.”
***** The two greatest investment opportunities for the next decade.
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China is a hot topic these days, and rightly so. It's the storm cloud gathering over our backyard. And as much as we try to reassure ourselves it will blow over, it's time to move the party indoors - or perhaps start planting seeds.
 
Of course, there are always deniers. Recently, we heard a short seller suggest that China's real estate market was in a bubble on the grounds that the nation was building commercial space equal to 25 square feet for every citizen – as if that was excessive.
 
Of course, that building program won't be completed for another couple of years. More to the point, in the U.S. we have more than 400 square feet of commercial real estate per person. So 25 sq. feet doesn't seem that ambitious for a nation that's fast becoming the world's factory floor.
 
Sure, a few cities in China that could accidentally find themselves with too much space for rent. It happens. But don't think that means the nation as a whole is becoming overbuilt.
 
One thing we know for certain is that China maintains an inscrutable poker face. It's a tough read.
Read more...

Market Update 02-02-10

 Stocks are rallying this week after several weeks of selling. But we wouldn’t be in any hurry to pronounce the correction over. Our work suggests that equities are likely to remain under pressure in the weeks ahead. Read more...

Market Update 01-26-10

Last week stocks put in one their worst showing in a year, with blue chips dropping nearly 4 percent. Market breadth was lousy and volume remains on the light side. This week share prices are staging a half-hearted rally, but we suspect stocks will continue to have a downward bias in the near-term. Read more...

Market Update 12-08-09

Markets around the globe are under pressure today. Dubai World is once again the news behind the selling as the conglomerate enters talks with its primary creditors to renegotiate its debt payments ahead of its Nakheel subsidiary likely default next week. That could pose a problem for European banks that have outstanding loans in the emirate. But Dubai isn’t the only potential problem on traders’ radar right now.
 
Also in Europe, concerns are mounting that the EU will have to ride to the rescue of Greece, which is faced with towering debt and an anemic economy. Fitch, the credit agency, lowered its rating for the nation to BBB+, the third-lowest investment grade. Likewise, Standard & Poor’s has put Greece’s A- rating on watch for a possible downgrade.
 
Not to be outdone, Moody’s Investors Service, the other major ratings agency, has indicated that its top debt ratings for the U.S. and the U.K. may “test the Aaa boundaries” due to the weakening public finances.
 
With stocks under pressure, investors are returning to the safety of the U.S. dollar. While that’s good for bonds, we’re seeing additional selling in commodities such as crude oil and gold.
 
For crude, we’re nearing the 1-year anniversary of the bottom in the market.
Read more...

Market Update 11-10-09

One thing’s for sure about this business, there’s never a dull moment in the markets. No sooner did it look like equities were breaking down than they staged a big turnaround last week. Together with yesterday’s trading they managed to recover much of the ground they lost in the prior few weeks. The advance came despite the greenback weakening meaningfully and commodities moved higher.
 
We had follow-through yesterday by way of a G20 meeting over the weekend, at which finance ministers were tight-lipped on the subject of currency rates. That prompted traders to sell dollars for other currencies. Talk of keeping monetary and stimulus in place at the same meeting put stock investors in a good mood, bidding up the major averages by another 2 percent.
 
While we like to see stocks make forward progress, we’re far from impressed with the action of late. We continue to see the small caps, which were the former leaders, trail the blue chips by a noticeable margin. Volume has remained persistently light, suggesting that while buying is taking place, there’s not a lot of conviction behind that buying.
 
It doesn’t help that the economic data coming in has been mixed, leaving the distinct impression we’re still close to recession rather than well on our way to recovery.
Read more...

Weekly Update 11-09-09

Three seemingly disparate news items last week strongly suggest that the investment world is bifurcating into commodity and non-commodity investments – or if you will long-term winners and long-term losers.

First, India's central bank announced that it had bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund. That's half of the total amount the IMF had planned on selling. For a relatively small central bank to buy that much in one fell swoop is a big deal. It promotes gold from the status of a “barbaric relic” to that of an alternative reserve currency. Moreover, it leaves China – and other Central Banks – with egg on their face.

If India does not buy the rest (and they have not ruled that out) it is almost certain other Central Banks, Sovereign Wealth funds, all those who are underinvested in precious metals to join a prospective scramble for gold et al. that far exceeds what the IMF is willing to sell. No wonder. Money supply in so-called non-inflationary countries have climbed 15 fold in the past generation or so while the total value of all above-ground gold has only doubled.

But we are not just bullish on precious metals. The second announcement was Warren Buffett's biggest investment of his career...Read more...

Market Update 11-03-09

Stocks posted their worst showing last week in eight months. The action was dreadful with all sectors and market segments being clipped. Small caps fared the worst, dropping anywhere from 5 to more than 6 percent, depending the on the average you choose to examine. Market breadth was equally terrible with declining issues outpacing advancers by more than a 7-to-1 margin on the New York Stock Exchange. Markets around the globe responded in kind.
 
Yesterday it looked like U.S. shares were headed for at least a temporary respite. But the rally was all too brief. Blue chip shares managed to recover by the end of yesterday’s trading, but there were plenty of divergences: small caps, the transports and utilities all lost ground.
 
Initially, investors cheered the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index data of October, which came in at 55.7, well ahead of expectations at 53 and the prior reading of 52.6. But the devil was in the details.
 
The stock market rally fizzled as a breakdown of the ISM data revealed the pace of new orders, supplier deliveries and customers’ inventories all slowed in the month, while prices paid rose.
Read more...

Market Update 11-02-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -30 (Neutral)
 
This morning in our office, someone jokingly quipped that with gold over $1,000 an ounce we might have to stop using gold bars as doorstops. I said, “Don't worry, they're insured.”
 
Of course, we don’t actually have gold doorstops, but if we did, the only thing to worry about would be theft. Gold has the unique advantage of being virtually immune to the physical risks that plague other assets.
 
For instance, unlike other commodities, gold will not degrade over time. Its beauty endures in a way that makes ageing film stars and fashion models green with envy. It does not oxidize and corrode like other metals do, nor is it fragile in any way.
 
True, gold's chemical properties can be replicated somewhat using silver or platinum, but neither of these comes as close to gold in attaining the Platonic ideal of timeless beauty.
 
Moreover, the gold supply has remained fairly constant throughout history.
Read more...