metal

Market Update 03-02-10

The bifurcated economy continues to plod along. The manufacturing segment is doing fairly well thanks in large part to strong export demand, which has risen for seven consecutive months. The service sector, however, continues to struggle.Read more...

Market Update 02-07-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -70 (Neutral-to-Negative)
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Inside this week's update...
***** Can't read China's poker face?
***** China tells its people to “buy gold.”
***** The two greatest investment opportunities for the next decade.
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China is a hot topic these days, and rightly so. It's the storm cloud gathering over our backyard. And as much as we try to reassure ourselves it will blow over, it's time to move the party indoors - or perhaps start planting seeds.
 
Of course, there are always deniers. Recently, we heard a short seller suggest that China's real estate market was in a bubble on the grounds that the nation was building commercial space equal to 25 square feet for every citizen – as if that was excessive.
 
Of course, that building program won't be completed for another couple of years. More to the point, in the U.S. we have more than 400 square feet of commercial real estate per person. So 25 sq. feet doesn't seem that ambitious for a nation that's fast becoming the world's factory floor.
 
Sure, a few cities in China that could accidentally find themselves with too much space for rent. It happens. But don't think that means the nation as a whole is becoming overbuilt.
 
One thing we know for certain is that China maintains an inscrutable poker face. It's a tough read.
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Market Update 01-12-10

Earnings season began with Alcoa reporting its results yesterday. Traditionally, it’s the report from this aluminum giant and the Dow Industrials member that marks the start of the season – and this time, the season certainly did not start with a high note.
 
Alcoa earnings disappointed – the largest U.S. aluminum producer’s profit trailed estimates, despite strong metal prices. High energy prices were one of the main culprits.
 
Higher energy prices were also behind the widened U.S. trade deficit reported for the month of November. The lower dollar helped U.S. companies to sell abroad; the overall increase in exports was achieved for the seventh month in a row. The size of the increase, 0.9 percent, to $138.2 billion, reflected increasing overseas demand for food and American-made automobiles and semiconductors.
 
Signs of recovery, however, are still few and far apart.
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Market Update 01-11-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -95 (Negative-to-Neutral)
 
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Inside this week's update...
 
***** China's new solar initiative.
***** 3 ways to profit from silver's bright future.
***** Keeping an eye on our Master Key.
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If you read the New York Times last weekend, you may have noticed an article on China's new foray into the business of solar collectors.
Solar collection is a form of solar energy. However, rather than use photovoltaic panels to convert light directly into electricity, solar collection uses hundreds of thousands of mirrors (called heliostats) spread over a wide area to concentrate the sun's rays on tanks of water.
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Mid-Week Update 12-23-09

Gold is up today, and the correction in the yellow metal appears to nearing its final stages. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a further 5 percent decline to the $1,040/oz level (close to the 100-day moving average), but given our expectations for where prices could go – we wouldn’t wait for another dip, either. We’re also seeing some divergence in the way gold and both the U.S. dollar and gold miners’ stock act – an encouraging sign for gold on both accounts.
 
Even as gold has pulled back, some miners have been advancing. One in particular, Small-Cap Value’s NovaGold Resources (NG), has moved higher by more than 20 percent in the last two days. The reason was company-specific: The junior miner announced that it’s acquiring the remaining 49 percent interest in the Ambler property in northern Alaska. The company will pay $29 million in stock and cash to a subsidiary of mining mammoth Rio Tinto for the undeveloped 90,000 plus acres of property.
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Market Update 12-22-09

Little has changed to alter our view since last week’s update. Stocks are enjoying a bit of a Santa rally in this holiday-shortened trading week. This seasonal strength should limit the downside risk. But at the same time, it’s hard to get excited at the market’s upside prospects as there’s also a fair amount of overhead resistance not far from where we are.
 
Today the Commerce Department released its latest estimate for third-quarter GDP. But rather than an upward revision as many on Wall Street were hoping for, the economy expanded by a less-than-expected 2.2 percent in the period, down from a previous estimate of 2.8 percent.
 
The bond market, meanwhile, has been selling off. Yields on 30-year Treasurys are at their highest level since June and back to where they were in August, 2008. The 10-year Treasury, which is widely used as a benchmark for setting lending rates, is also closing in on its highs from last summer. The bond market is either betting on a resurgence in inflation or growth accelerating to 4 percent or more. Although we seen numerous signs the economy is stabilizing, there is also ample evidence to suggest that it’s not poised to leap ahead at a 4 percent annualized rate either.
 
The action of late has been in the ForEx market, where the U.S.
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Market Update 12-08-09

Markets around the globe are under pressure today. Dubai World is once again the news behind the selling as the conglomerate enters talks with its primary creditors to renegotiate its debt payments ahead of its Nakheel subsidiary likely default next week. That could pose a problem for European banks that have outstanding loans in the emirate. But Dubai isn’t the only potential problem on traders’ radar right now.
 
Also in Europe, concerns are mounting that the EU will have to ride to the rescue of Greece, which is faced with towering debt and an anemic economy. Fitch, the credit agency, lowered its rating for the nation to BBB+, the third-lowest investment grade. Likewise, Standard & Poor’s has put Greece’s A- rating on watch for a possible downgrade.
 
Not to be outdone, Moody’s Investors Service, the other major ratings agency, has indicated that its top debt ratings for the U.S. and the U.K. may “test the Aaa boundaries” due to the weakening public finances.
 
With stocks under pressure, investors are returning to the safety of the U.S. dollar. While that’s good for bonds, we’re seeing additional selling in commodities such as crude oil and gold.
 
For crude, we’re nearing the 1-year anniversary of the bottom in the market.
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Weekly Update 12-07-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -81 (Negative to Neutral)

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Mid-Week Update 12-02-09

BHP Billiton (BHP), which is featured in both our Growth and Income Portfolios, failed to consummate a marriage with Rio Tinto (RTP) last year. But a subsequently proposed joint venture between the pair, the second- and third-largest iron ore producers in the world, could be nearing reality. The partnership between the two companies, if the deal is finalized, would merge their iron ore operations in Australia and create a synergy that could save around $10 billion a year on capital and production costs. The two companies are expected to ship more than 300 million tons combined of iron ore worldwide this year.
 
The joint venture is not written in stone yet. The companies are looking to finalize the deal by a December 5 deadline stated by Rio, while BHP’s CEO Marius Kloppers is less concerned about the date and is looking for completion before year-end. Regardless, the joint venture makes sense for both companies.
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Weekly Update 11-23-09

Some of today's brightest investors have decided the world has gone crazy. To them, it makes no sense that commodity prices are rising so sharply while economic growth remains sluggish. Something is not as it appears, and they've decided the impostor is China.Read more...