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Market Update 08-31-10

The Bank of Japan stepped up its stimulus program over the weekend, announcing another 10 trillion yen (a little short of $120 billion), six-month loan program to try to prop up its sluggish economy. The goal is to try to get credit flowing more freely and to weaken the yen, which reached a 15-year high versus the dollar earlier this year as investors flocked to the yen’s perceived stability. In addition, the Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan announced a ¥920 billion (approximately $11 billion) economic stimulus. All these measures are aimed to help Japan’s economy, whose exports are being hurt by the strong yen, and whose domestic production remains sluggish.
 
The foreign exchange market reaction was lukewarm to the news, and the yen has held its ground on belief that the additional loan expansion alone (no quantitative easing was announced) will be insufficient to reverse the yen’s recent strength. The Asian stock markets, however, received a jolt from Japan’s actions in addition to expectations of further quantitative easing from the U.S. and the E.U., with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index booking its biggest gain in five weeks immediately after the announcement.
 
While Japan’s economic recovery, too, is slowing, at 3.4 percent it is still projected to grow faster than either the U.S. or the E.U.
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Market Update 08-24-10

BHP Billiton’s (BHP) bid to take over Canadian fertilizer producer Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) has officially been rejected as being too low. But the buzz created by the takeover attempt isn’t dying. First, there was speculation that one of the Chinese state-owned enterprises would step in and shell out the cash for Potash—if anyone has ample cash for the acquisition, the Chinese do. Today, there’s new speculation that BHP’s Australian rival, Rio Tinto (RTP), may partner with a Chinese company and submit its own bid for Potash. Rumors are also circulating that fellow fertilizer producer Mosaic (MOS) may partner with other agricultural companies to acquire Potash.
 
The high level of interest in Potash highlights the bullish case for fertilizers, essential for growing crops. In the long run, population growth and improving standards of living in developing countries should lead to continual demand for fertilizer to increase food supply. In the nearer term, the rally of crop prices due to adverse weather conditions (for example, Russia’s drought and wild fires) reducing supply should lead to an extra demand jolt for fertilizers as farmers scramble to take advantage of more favorable pricing.
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Mid-Week Update & Orange Alert 08-18-10

Yesterday, Growth Portfolio member and the largest retailer in the world Wal-Mart (WMT) reported its second-quarter results. Earnings per share were up 9 percent – and, more important, the company increased its EPS guidance for the full year. It’s now expecting to make from $3.95 to $4.05, exceeds its earlier forecast of $4 profit for the year.

With the economy remaining weak, we view its sales growth as disappointing, although Wal-Mart continued to excel in leveraging expenses. As a result, operating income increased at a 4.4 percent rate over the like last year period, a better rate than sales. Wal-Mart customers continued to spend cautiously, and, as was commented on the company’s conference call, “the paycheck cycle remains pronounced. Government assistance continues to increase as a form of payment, particularly in regions with higher unemployment and credit now only represents about 15 percent of our tender.”

The soft U.S. economy was reflected in Wal-Mart’s flat U.S. sales. Same-store sales and same-store traffic declined—although they did show improvement by the end of the quarter. The weakness of the U.S. market was partially offset by strong trends in Wal-Mart International. Internationally, net sales increased by 11 percent and operating income grew faster than sales, reflecting growing margins.Read more...

Market Update 07-27-10

The results of the stress tests on EU banks, meant to assure the public that the banks have enough capital to survive if the debt crisis worsens, are out. More than 90 banks were tested, and with the exception of 7, all passed. Going in, as the tests were meant to be a calming pill for investors, the vast majority of the banks were expected to pass, so the results were no surprise. As in the case with the U.S. bank stress tests more than a year ago, there’s plenty of skepticism whether the stress tests were rigorous enough or were they merely for show. For example, what would happen in the event of a sovereign debt default—the scenario that most fear could trigger a full blown financial tsunami—was not even tested. The banks that failed (five Spanish savings banks, an already nationalized German mortgage lender and Greece’s ATEbank) will have to raise €3.5 billion total over a period of time still to be determined.

The euro has rallied in July after falling to a four-year low in June, on some signs that European economies aren’t as bad as feared and the beleaguered countries like Greece, Spain, and Portugal appear to have satisfied debt obligations for the time being. The stress test results have been treated as positive reinforcement, even though their execution was likely flawed (or not “stressful” enough).  Read more...

Market Update 07-06-10

Over the past week, weaker than expected employment and other economic data here in the U.S. has lead to significant pressure on U.S. markets. Emerging indices along with industrial metals, shaken by the decline in China’s June Service PMI that followed a slowdown in its manufacturing, were also weak last week, but rallied yesterday; altogether, they were markedly stronger than the U.S. indices, reflecting a stronger growth in the developing world.

Australia will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5 percent for the second straight month. With interest rates having been raised six times since last October and global economic recovery appearing to slow down, the Royal Bank of Australia noted justification for standing pat for now. The central bank also stated today that consumer spending and business investment were expanding, helping to alleviate some concerns of slowdown in the country. The Aussie dollar declined last week, also on slow-down concerns.Read more...

If only this time were different: Market Update 07-06-10

Short-Term Key: Neutral Long-Term Key: -11 (Neutral)
 
The financial news seems like a mad roller coaster ride at the moment. Expert opinion seems to flip-flop on a daily basis from optimistic to pessimistic and back again. All the data seems contradictory.
 
In fact, the only consensus threatening to emerge (but still lurking in the shadows) is that resource supplies are growing tight. It's the one factor that seems to make sense of everything else.
 
For example, last night Bloomberg ran this headline: “Copper Shortage Looms in 2011 for Macquarie as Freeport Sees Supply Limits.” The article quotes not just analysts but major copper mining outfits like Codelco and Freeport who claim that too few high-grade copper discoveries have been made in recent years, so they are forced to mine deposits that are either lower grade or deeper and more expensive.
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Market Update 06-08-10

This week, some significant monetary policy developments with global ramifications are expected. European central bankers will be meeting later this week to set interest rates and likely to discuss containing the debt crisis plaguing the region.
Meanwhile, China will release the latest data on industrial production, fixed-asset investment, and money supply. If results show higher than desired growth, China may need to take additional tightening steps, indicating to the market that it needs to slow its growth. If the data comes at lower-than-expected levels, however, the markets may interpret it as more signs that growth in China is already slowing – and that might, in turn, lead to more turmoil. This might be a case of “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” blues, brought on by the global economic jitters.
Almost any news leads to turmoil these days; with better economic data largely disregarded.
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The only safe currency today: Market Update 06-07-10

Short-Term Key: Neutral
Long-Term Key: -10 (Neutral)
 
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Inside this week's update...
 
***** Poor employment figures suggest more QE ahead.
***** Why the Fed could undermine the dollar.
***** 2 investment categories for safety and growth.
***** Our top 4 stocks today.
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The economy would have to be weak for us to start speculating on whether the Federal Reserve will start buying corporate bonds to prop things up. But that's where we find ourselves in the wake of last Friday's dismal employment figures.
 
True, hours and wages increased a bit in May. But that means little in light of the fact that the economy only created 41,000 private sector jobs.
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Market Update 06-02-10

With all the gloom and doom surrounding Europe, Germany, the largest and one of the sounder EU economies, looks to be doing better. The latest numbers there showed that unemployment fell sharply as exports grew, helped by the lower euro. The number of officially unemployed Germans now stands at 3.25 million (for a 7.7 percent rate), the lowest level since the end of 2008. However, the dark cloud hovering over the entire European region could keep business confidence low despite an otherwise relatively strong economy, confirmed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) recently upgraded 2010 and 2011 growth forecast for Germany; GDP growth next year is expected to be in the order of 2.1 percent, higher than average for Europe (which is still optimistically expected to be 1.8 percent).
Speculation is stirring that China may be reviewing its holding of euro assets, speculations that the Chinese have been quick to deny, stating that China will not pare its European investments. While the assurance from China may be a ploy to prevent potentially triggering a massive selloff and thereby eroding the value of its holdings, the fact remains that there simply aren’t too many alternatives to the euro. The U.S.
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Market Update 05-12-10

This was a wild week. The worries about the future of the European Union moved into panic mode over the growing crisis and concerns that the worsening credit crunch could choke the economy. Investors became more concerned about their European investments after the European Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates at their current level and the ensuing comment of the ECB President Trichet of not even discussing buying government bonds to stem the crisis. Last Thursday, the Dow closed down 347 points – and that was after bouncing back from the biggest intraday drop ever, the drop that took some blue chips down 30 percent and more. At one point during the day, the Dow was down by roughly 1,000 points.
Prompted by the euro’s slide and plunging confidence, however, the EU and IMF got together over the weekend and put together a $1 trillion loan package plus a sovereign debt purchase program to address the debt crisis overrunning Europe. This worked to calm investors’ fears and lead to monster rallies in equity markets around the world on Monday, with markets in Portugal, Italy, and Spain (feared to be the next countries to go into crisis mode) posting double digit gains. Worldwide stocks gained about 5 percent as a whole.
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