oil and gas

Market Update 07-06-10

Over the past week, weaker than expected employment and other economic data here in the U.S. has lead to significant pressure on U.S. markets. Emerging indices along with industrial metals, shaken by the decline in China’s June Service PMI that followed a slowdown in its manufacturing, were also weak last week, but rallied yesterday; altogether, they were markedly stronger than the U.S. indices, reflecting a stronger growth in the developing world.

Australia will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5 percent for the second straight month. With interest rates having been raised six times since last October and global economic recovery appearing to slow down, the Royal Bank of Australia noted justification for standing pat for now. The central bank also stated today that consumer spending and business investment were expanding, helping to alleviate some concerns of slowdown in the country. The Aussie dollar declined last week, also on slow-down concerns.Read more...

The top asset class to buy today 02-16-10

Short-Term Key: Negative    Long-Term Key: -85.5 (Neutral to Bearish)
 
Chinese New Year began two days ago and marked the start of what Chinese astrologers call the “Year of the Metal Tiger.” In light of this, we have decided to review some of the major investment themes for the months ahead.
 
First among these themes, we now feel you should regard precious metals – and especially gold – as an asset class unto themselves. Over the past 40 years (and especially the last 10), they have proven themselves to be important holdings in good times and bad. By good times, we mean periods of inflation and growth. By bad times, we mean deflation and recession.
 
Admittedly, gold does lose its value as an asset class during the very best of times, such as we had from the early 1980s to the late 1990s. Unfortunately, those days are not likely to return. Instead, we will likely see cycles of inflation/deflation from now on, in which gold shines.
 
Naturally, your gold portfolio should be diversified to maximize safety and growth.
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Market Update 02-16-10

Short-Term Key: Negative    Long-Term Key: -85.5 (Neutral to Bearish)
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Mid-Week Update 11-25-09

Petrobras (PBR), the Brazilian oil giant and one of the largest oil producers in the world, recently announced its third quarter results, bringing in R$7.3 billion ($4.2 billion) in earnings. Although down from R$9.84 billion in the same quarter last year, the figures narrowly beat Bloomberg’s average analyst estimates of R$7.25 billion. Read more...

Another Energy Bet From China

CNOOC is a dominant offshore oil and gas company with a strong yield

 
With expectations of inflation on the rise, long-term bonds and REITs have sold off sharply. This makes it smart to further balance our interest rate-sensitive holdings by adding another energy company to our portfolio. Energy companies are well positioned to benefit from what will be one of the strongest trends in coming years, rising oil and gas prices. Keep in mind that Wall Street consensus estimates still use $30-a-barrel oil as the basis for valuing energy companies. So even if oil prices pull back from the recent highs of $40, valuations of energy companies will remain exceedingly reasonable. (See December TCI, “The Street Gets It Wrong Again”; also, see p.11 of this issue.)
 
The major oils, such as Income Portfolio recommendations ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips, continue to offer attractive stock valuations, relatively low risk, and a steady stream of dividend payments. Our two overseas energy holdings, which are more speculative, have seen their shares sell off in 2004.
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Quality at a Discount

ICAP scoops up a lagging oil company and a drug maker

 
On the preceding page, in recognition of the rising level of insecurity in the world, we urged fund investors to make sure they own at least one large-cap growth fund. By the same token, we were eager to add a high-quality large-cap stock or two to our Fund Finds portfolio. As we searched, we stumbled upon a relatively young, small five star-rated Large Cap Value fund: ICAP Select Equity fund (ICSLX). With just a little more than $140 million under management, the fund has been an outstanding performer. It is in the top 10 percent for the category year to date and in the top 11 percent for the past five-year period. The fund selects its holdings from a group of 450 large-cap U.S. and European names, focusing on stocks with attractive valuations, consistent to improving earnings, and clear catalysts for growth, such as new product launches. Recently the fund was featured in an article “Great Funds at Bargain Prices” in SmartMoney.com as one of 58 actively managed funds that have delivered impressive returns at a low cost over the past five years.
 
We’re not recommending that our subscribers buy ICAP Select Equity fund itself, though, for two reasons.
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Sector Update: From Minds to Mines

A look back at how our picks have performed and where they are headed

 
Each issue in Sector Sense we zero in on a particular geographical area or investment segment, make a general case for it, and present a handful of enticing stocks for your consideration. Some of them belong to or eventually join one of our regular portfolios. It might seem as if the others, though, vanish from our radar screen. Thus we decided it would be useful to revisit our recommendations from time to time, and below we offer updates on a range of stocks previously presented in this column. Note, too, you’re always welcome to call us with questions about any stocks we recommend in TCI.
 
Education stocks (February 04: “No Brainers”): The case for online and adult education—one of the economy’s fastestgrowing sectors—is as strong as ever, starting with the massive discrepancy between the salaries earned by individuals with a college degree and those without such credentials. Our favorite stock in this area remains Growth Portfolio holding Washington Post, thanks to its subsidiary Kaplan, the leader in test preparation and online law education.
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Profits in Kazakhstan Oil

Two top energy funds favor the same small Canadian company

 
Each issue we’ve steadily added to our Fund Finds portfolio. As of last issue, three major categories were represented—financial, tech/defense, and franchises. Just one key sector was missing: energy. Our newest find remedies that lack, making the portfolio a fully diversified collection of some of the most exciting holdings culled from some of the best-performing funds.
 
Our latest find lives up to the standard set by our prior picks. It’s called PetroKazakhstan, and it’s a small independent integrated Canadian energy company that has been operating in the Republic of Kazakhstan (formerly part of the Soviet Union) for more than six years. The company is a favored holding of two top energy funds. The State Street Research Global Resources Fund has been an outstanding performer. For instance, its class A shares, traded under the symbol SSGRX, had the second-highest total return for its category for the past five-year period and won third place for both the past one- and two-year periods.
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WHAT THEY’RE THINKING

Merrill’s Energy Bulls

 
Wall Street has two kinds of analysts: buy side and sell side. Buy side analysts are directly in the fray. They manage money and use their research to make actual choices in picking stocks. Thus their records are easy to assess; simply look at the record of the mutual fund or portfolio they’re associated with. (Our Fund Finds Portfolio, p. 7, is built around the picks of the best buy side analysts.)
 
Sell side analysts work for Wall Street firms, follow stocks and industries, and make recommendations. It’s harder to evaluate their performance, but all the available indications are that it is dismal. Recent studies have shown that over the past four years, stocks they favored dramatically underperformed stocks they panned. These findings don’t surprise us. After all, how many sell side analysts were bearish on tech in 2000?
 
Today, as we’ve consistently been arguing, myopia on energy is the mirror image of tech myopia in 2000. No firm is forecasting an uptrend in energy prices.
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Taxes: The Lowdown on Losses

You can use losses to offset gains—except, that is, when you can’t

 
The saying “nothing is certain but death and taxes” could be amended to: “nothing is certain but death, taxes, and taxpayers’ unswerving desire to keep their taxes as low as possible.” No one likes to pay taxes, and everyone is looking for legal ways to cut them. But there are some common misperceptions about just what the law allows. Some of them have to do with the issue of how and when you can deduct business losses.
 
In particular, many taxpayers assume that losses from an investment in one business invariably can be used to offset gains from a profit-generating business or from personal income. Operating under this belief, such taxpayers might plunge into an investment expecting that they will get some nice tax benefits in the event the business ends up losing money.
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