Chinese government

Market Update 02-07-10

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: -70 (Neutral-to-Negative)
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Inside this week's update...
***** Can't read China's poker face?
***** China tells its people to “buy gold.”
***** The two greatest investment opportunities for the next decade.
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China is a hot topic these days, and rightly so. It's the storm cloud gathering over our backyard. And as much as we try to reassure ourselves it will blow over, it's time to move the party indoors - or perhaps start planting seeds.
 
Of course, there are always deniers. Recently, we heard a short seller suggest that China's real estate market was in a bubble on the grounds that the nation was building commercial space equal to 25 square feet for every citizen – as if that was excessive.
 
Of course, that building program won't be completed for another couple of years. More to the point, in the U.S. we have more than 400 square feet of commercial real estate per person. So 25 sq. feet doesn't seem that ambitious for a nation that's fast becoming the world's factory floor.
 
Sure, a few cities in China that could accidentally find themselves with too much space for rent. It happens. But don't think that means the nation as a whole is becoming overbuilt.
 
One thing we know for certain is that China maintains an inscrutable poker face. It's a tough read.
Read more...

Market Update 01-25-10

 
Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key -90 (Negative to Neutral)
 
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Inside this week's update...
 
***** 4 high-potential Chinese stocks.
***** Real estate bubble or joint venture financing?
***** Top funds geared to China's growth.
***** Move over Wal-Mart, make room for Wumart.
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Speculation continues to run high on the issue of whether China is experiencing a bubble that threatens investors. Chinese real estate looks hugely overpriced and manufacturing capacity (according to some) has run far in excess of potential demand.
On the political front, an argument has erupted between the Chinese government and Google. Google claims China hacked the email accounts of some of its customers, who coincidentally were human rights crusaders.
Read more...

Weekly Update 11-30-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -57 (Neutral)
 
A few weeks ago, 60 Minutes aired a story about one of the most polluted towns in China. The town is in the business of importing electronic waste (old computer monitors, cell phones, etc.) from the U.S. and melting it down to recover valuable metals.
Read more...

Weekly Update 11-23-09

Some of today's brightest investors have decided the world has gone crazy. To them, it makes no sense that commodity prices are rising so sharply while economic growth remains sluggish. Something is not as it appears, and they've decided the impostor is China.Read more...

Market Update 11-11-08

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the unemployment rate had risen to 6.5% in October, the highest rate since 1994. More than 1 million American jobs have been lost so far in 2008, and the job loss rate is accelerating- over half of those jobs were lost in August, September and October. Clearly this bad news is confirmation that we're in a recession. The worst of the financial crisis is over, but it will take time for the liquidity injections to work its way through the economy and companies' bottom-lines. In the meantime, Main Street is feeling the full brunt of the crisis.

Read more...

Market Update 02-27-07

February 27, 2007

IPO Market Commentary

As you are aware, the US equity markets had a significant pullback today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 416 points (or 3.29%), the NASDAQ Composite lost 96.66 points (or 3.86%) and the broader S&P 500 Index lost 50.33 (or 3.47%).

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Several factors contributed to today's selloff:Read more...

Weekly Update 07-09-07

Stocks made big gains last week, though not big enough to cause new highs in the Dow Industrials. That may be a good thing, since markets rarely make tops unless the Dow does too. The Dow’s most recent high was 13676 on June 4. That gives us another 150 points or so before we can start worrying about non-confirmations.

To remind you … Dow Theory states that highs in the Industrials must be confirmed by highs in the Transports in order to assure us that a bull market is underway. We bring this up because Dow Theory has been a very valuable tool throughout the past century or so since Charles Dow first made his observations on market behavior.

We should mention that one of the greatest proofs of Dow Theory has been the excellent track record of its leading practitioner, Richard Russell, who has published his newsletter, Dow Theory Letters, since 1958. Richard has spotted the turning points in stock trends better than just about anyone.

Mind you, Dow Theory has served us well in the past few years as well. So until the Industrials surpass 13676, we’re not going to worry too much about the bull market.

Of course, we rely on much more than Dow Theory to make our calls. In fact, we have a host of other indicators, many of which I developed personally. We find them pretty useful too. They are one reason we have been consistently ranked among the top market timers according to Timer Digest.Read more...

Weekly Update 03-05-07

Berkshire Expo

Image by Ethan Bloch via Flickr

 

If you read our previous update carefully, you might recall our saying, “Sure, we could have another down week…” Not that we’re trying to claim any prescience. Like most commentators, we did not expect the 4.4% sell-off which occurred in the past few days.

At the same time, as we mentioned in Tuesday’s Special Update, we were not too surprised. Several updates ago, we pointed out that the highs which recently occurred in all the major averages, including the Dow Transports, constituted a Dow Theory BUY signal. We also noted that such signals are often followed by a short-term correction.

The last time this occurred was in March 2006. After all the major averages made new highs, they endured a five to six week slide. It wasn’t until July that stocks finally began to rise again – which was the beginning of a seven-month rally. The one that seems to have ended last week.Read more...

Weekly Update 07-05-05

Dhahran الظهران

Image via Wikipedia

 

Last week, the Dow and the other major averages hardly budged. Yet weekly advances topped declines by 2.5 to 1. This rare divergence is wildly positive for the short term. Combined with the current low level of specialist shorting, it means stocks have a lot of room to move up, and almost no downside risk. So we continue to expect the market will set a new recovery high in the near future.

But, as we say almost every week, this favorable short-term trend will not last forever. As always, we have one eye fixed on the long-term energy trend. And that perspective gives us serious, if not grave, concerns regarding which direction our economy and the world are going.

OIL AT ANY COST

In the previous Market Update, I discussed Chinese oil company CNOOC’s offer to buy Unocal. Several readers took me to task – mistakenly inferring that I thought a Chinese bid should be favored over an American bid. That’s not actually what I meant.Read more...