Congress

Mid-Week Update 02-24-10

Despite some positive economic news that has come out in recent weeks, one area of the economy that has yet to show real signs of improvement is retail spending. American consumers are still reeling from the near collapse of the U.S. economy, and nearly 10 percent of them don’t have a job (many more if you count partially employed). This raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery, given that personal consumption accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
 
Consumer sentiment is still not back to normal. Yesterday the Conference Board announced that its consumer confidence index had fallen from an upward-revised 56.5 to 46.0. The historic average of the index is 95.6, which means that the recovery, from the consumer’s perspective, has a long way to go. When consumers were asked to assess the current-day conditions, the relevant index fell 5.8 points to 19.4 – its lowest level since 1983. Perhaps even more worrisome, the Expectations Index, which measures the six-month outlook, also declined, dropping 13.5 points to 63.8.
 
The main factor contributing to these declines was, not surprisingly, the dismal job climate.
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Market Update 07-20-09

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Inside this week's update...
 
***** Healthcare and the state of America.
***** Bureaucracy. Need we say more?
***** The strength of our competition.
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If you've been with us for any length of time, you probably have a thorough understanding of why you should invest in commodity stocks, energy, gold, and BRACC nations. These sectors are destined to be the long-term winners.
 
But today we're going to talk about something a little different: healthcare, and what it tells us about the growing dysfunction of American society (oh yes, and about making money too)...
 
 
THE MOUNTING COST OF COMPLEXITY
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Mid-Week Update 06-24-09

As the market begins to roll over, it becomes increasingly important to protect your portfolio. Of course, we advocate holding precious metals, like gold, that will hold their value in both inflationary and deflationary times – but some well positioned stocks should remain cornerstones of your portfolio as well. This type of company should boast a fundamentally stable business and a dividend stream to cushion investors in tough times, but also an element of growth that rewards investors in better times.

In the current market, some utility companies fit the bill. Withthe Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve pulling out all the stops to keep interest rates low, and many utility yields look attractive at current levels. Add in that a market pullback will likely initiate a flight to safety, and selected utilities could also offer substantial capital appreciation.

We don’t recommend going out and buying utilities at will, however, as all are certainly not created equal. Most will provide nice income streams, but the growth of that stream is largely tied to regulated rate increases. As we enter an exceptionally inflationary era, with interest rates rising (at some point), we point you towards those utilities that have an element of growth, so they can not only grow earnings – but grow their dividend payments as well, giving you a positive return in real terms.Read more...

Market Update 05-26-09

Our hat’s off to the White House (along with the Federal Reserve). They have done an outstanding job of talking up the stock market since early March. With little in the way of funds available to bail out the ailing banks, and Congress in no mood to provide more cash for the cause, they’re trying to talk their way out of the slump. The propaganda we’ve heard over and over is that everything is fine with the nation’s largest banks and the economy will soon start to improve. The idea is that if people start thinking things are getting better it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
The success of this strategy is evident in the stock market’s rally off the lows and today’s rebound in consumer confidence, which climbed by the most in six years (to an 8-month high). Of course improving confidence won’t automatically translate into a significant increase in consumer spending. And the latest consumer optimism had more to do with the perception of where we’ll be in six months rather than where we are right now. In fact, the average man on the street according to the survey sees little in the way of an improvement in current conditions.
 
As for where we are today, also out this morning, the Case-Shiller Home Price data showed the retreat in the housing is far from over. That follows last week’s dismal print on housing starts, which continue to spiral lower.
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Market Update 04-07-09

There has been nothing to come down the pike in the last week to alter our view that stocks are headed for a short-term fall.

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Market Update 03-30-09

  Jean-Claude...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: +54

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Inside this week's update..
***** The power of false assumptions.
***** Congress and the Fed – choosing the least damaging solution.
***** What to own until the banking crisis ends, and after.
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My old college logic professor once included in a lecture a story about Bertrand Russell, the late Nobel Prize winner and master logician. Russell, according to the story, once said, “Grant me one false assumption, and I can prove anything.”

A listener then responded by asking Russell, “Okay, assuming 1 + 1 = 1, prove to me that you and the Pope are the same.”Read more...

Market Update 03-23-09

  Randall Kroszner of...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Short-Term Key: Negative
Long-Term Key: +54
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Inside this week's update...Read more...

Market Update 03-19-09

Market Update: From the Editors of "Leeb's Income Performance Letter"

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The Fed's Dramatic Buying Binge
Your Best Investment Moves Now
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The Fed's Dramatic Buying Binge

The Federal Reserve is living up to its promise to do whatever it can to get the economy going again. Catching the financial markets completely by surprise, the Fed stepped up that effort in a big way yesterday with the announcement that it will pump another $1.15 trillion into the financial system by purchasing U.S. Treasury issues and mortgage securities.

The Fed said it will buy $300 billion of Treasury securities, mostly in the two-to-10-year maturity range; increase its purchase of mortgage-backed securities from $500 billion to $1.25 trillion; and double its purchase of debt from government agencies to $200 billion.Read more...