Greek government

Market Update 04-28-10

Renewed concerns over the potential Greek default of its sovereign debt have been felt in markets worldwide in recent days, especially in Europe. Though to our way of thinking the issue never went away. Standard & Poor’s cutting its rating on Greek debt to junk status yesterday only served to fuel investors’ fears. Credit default swaps (which are essentially insurance policies against bond defaults) soared to record levels, on not only for Greek debt but for other European countries with debt problems as well.

Also hit hard were the stock and credit markets of Spain and Portugal on fears that crisis will spread. In addition to Greece, Portugal’s debt ratings were slashed yesterday, while today it was Spain’s turn to fall under the rating agencies’ crosshairs and suffer a credit downgrade. But in contrast to yesterday’s action, which caused stock markets around the globe to drop sharply, the pain of Spain’s credit downgrade today was largely limited to the Iberian Peninsula. In the US, the market largely ignored this event, apparently predicting that the rout won’t broaden. We wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the fallout from Europe’s woes, however.

The size of the bailout required to avoid a Greek default being discussed now spans a wide range but there’s a growing belief that 120 billion euros ($158 billion) is needed—a much bigger amount than the original €45 billion rescue package pledged. The talks between the Greek government, the EU and the IMF are still ongoing.Read more...

Market Update 04-27-10

Europe is back in focus this week as Greece moves closer to defaulting on its debt. Germany’s Angela Merkel, meanwhile, has been campaigning that aid to their wayward EU partner is not assured (no doubt in a bid to exact stricter conditions tided to that aid). Greek stocks have plunged to new lows and yield on its sovereign bonds have soared. Still, wanting to placate angry voters at home, chances are the current Greek government won’t go far enough with the needed spending cuts, which will likely result in a default on Greek bonds. But the tragedy doesn’t stop there.
 
Fears that Greece’s woes will hit others, such as Portugal, Spain and Ireland, has sent those shares down sharply as well. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate the region will need more than $200 billion to avoid a debt default—triple the sum currently being bandied about. At some point Germany, France and the other stronger members of the union will most likely say “enough is enough” and sever their ties to the Greeks and other nations that don’t tow the line on spending in favor of a smaller, more fiscally conservative monetary union.
 
The US dollar is up on the EU’s troubles, but stocks here are feeling the pinch on the possibility that Europe’s recovery will be delayed, hurting the earnings prospects for US companies.
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Market Update 04-13-10

The US dollar has come under pressure this week as the European Union has moved forward with a rescue package for the ailing Greek government. The EU’s loan package isn’t the be all and end all though and the issue of Greece ultimately defaulting on its debt is still a possibility. The bailout of Athens should only be viewed as a temporary reprieve for the euro. Over time we expect both the dollar and the euro (and all the other currencies that are being debased through the massive issuance of debt for that matter) to continue to lose their battle against hard assets such as gold and silver.

The US stock market has been unfazed by the goings on in Europe, with the Dow Industrials having briefly inched above 11,000 for the first time in a year and half and the S&P 500 flirting with 1200. The rally could carry the major averages higher, but there are some worrying signs that suggest the upside is rather limited.

We’ve mentioned before the steadily declining pace of trading activity. Trading volume on a 50-day moving average basis is off about 35 percent from where it was a year ago. On a longer, 200-day moving average basis, it’s off by about 22 percent. Now there’s nothing to say this won’t continue as stocks claw their way higher, but the lack of volume suggests that when stocks do start to come under pressure, as they invariably will, we’ll see a big jump in volume and that selling could feed on itself, making matters worse.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 04-07-10

A resolution to the Greek debt crisis is still nowhere in sight, and investor patience is wearing thin. Reports out yesterday indicated that the Greek government had wanted changes made to the terms of a rescue plan proposed by European leaders and the International Monetary Fund on March 25. According to various news accounts, Greek officials were looking for ways to limit the role of the IMF in the rescue deal, fearing that the conditions imposed by the organization would be too harsh. The Greek government denied these claims, but investors responded swiftly, driving up yields on ten-year bonds to above 7 percent.

The future looks bleak for the Greek government’s fiscal health. This year alone it will need to raise $40 billion -- $15.5 billion of which it will need to come up with by May. Total debt now stands at 113 percent of the country’s GDP, which is well above the euro zone's limit of 60 percent, while the budget deficit has ballooned to 12.7 percent of GDP.

And though the severity of this crisis has been known for months, Europe has yet to come up with a plan that inspires the confidence of investors. The EU nations had said they were prepared to offer Greece a lifeline in the case of an emergency, but how and when that bailout would occur was unclear. Last month, the EU and IMF announced that they had come up with a joint plan to rescue Greece, but again many of the details weren’t disclosed, such as the precise nature of the IMF’s role in the bailout.Read more...

Market Update 03-02-10

The bifurcated economy continues to plod along. The manufacturing segment is doing fairly well thanks in large part to strong export demand, which has risen for seven consecutive months. The service sector, however, continues to struggle.Read more...

Market Update 02-16-10

The European Union’s plans for aiding the ailing Greek economy continue to dominate the financial headlines this week. Last Thursday, EU member states pledged to come to Greece’s rescue—should they ask for it—without offering solid details on an aid package. That news settled equity markets while simultaneously hurting rather than helping the euro. The news also buoyed precious metals.Read more...

Market Update 02-10-10

Emerging market stocks and the euro stopped their worst three-day slide in a year yesterday on speculation that the European Union will get together on a financial rescue plan for Greece when EU leaders meet tomorrow. Commodities also bounced back. A default of Greece’s sovereign debt could have a disastrous domino effect through the global financial system which is still recovering from the corporate financial crisis that occurred not long ago. Help from other European Union countries is reportedly being discussed to prevent such a disaster.
 
The situation, however, presents major uncertainties. First, Greece is only one of several deeply indebted countries that will ultimately need help. Second, the Greek government still faces opposition to budget cuts as is made clear by today's strike in Athens. Third, it's being reported that the EU leaders will probably push Greece for more detailed budget cuts while stopping short of announcing an aid package.
 
Unnerving as the pullback in emerging markets may have been, some correction in the markets is normal and doesn’t diminish the strong outlook for these countries.
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