Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries

Market Update 03-17-09

A late drop yesterday in the market ended a four day rally, the best rally we’ve had so far this year. The S&P 500 rebounded from twelve year lows last Monday, and gained nearly 12 percent in the four day stretch from last Tuesday to Friday; and it’s looking to continue its run today. Gold prices ended up about flat over the four day period, suggesting that investors are feeling somewhat more optimistic about the economy and seeing less appeal in gold as a safe haven, but aren’t quite ready to abandon the asset yet.Read more...

Market Update 01-06-09

A miserable year for the market ended on a high note. In the final week of 2008 and the first trading day of 2009, the Dow gained nearly 6% and ended up above 9,000 for the first time in nearly two months. The S&P 500 was up over 7%. The market fell back slightly yesterday as some investors took profits, only to come back in stride today.
 
Yesterday, President-elect Obama met with Congressional leaders and reiterated the need for fast stimulus action. He’s favoring a two-year stimulus plan in the neighborhood of about $800 billion. In addition to extra federal spending, the plan includes tax cuts worth $300 billion for households and about $100 billion for businesses. Some specific provisions in the plan, such as a one year tax credit for companies who hire new employees, are still being negotiated. However, the plan even the way it looks today is certainly a confidence booster.
 
The Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks the number of home sales contracts signed, declined 4% in November. However, mortgage applications surged dramatically in December thanks to record low mortgage rates resulting from the Fed emergency actions. We are curious to see what December’s data will be, but we expect at least a modest improvement in the housing market in 2009.
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Market Update 01-06-09

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Donald L. Evans rin...

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Last week’s stock market action was quite impressive. Blue chips, as measured by the S&P 500, gained 6.8 percent for the week, while the more economically sensitive small caps were up by a greater amount—8.8 percent on the unweighted average of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The weekly breadth of the market was one of the best on record and volume was high for this time of the year, suggesting there’s some conviction behind the buying. 

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Market Update 12-09-08

OPEC headquarters in Vienna

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Winter is in full force these days here in New York, with temperatures routinely dipping below the freezing mark. The weather has left more that a few people longing for the dog days of summer. The stock market, meanwhile, is seeming marking the passage of time in dog years, with 12 months or more of ups and downs/highs and lows, getting compressed into just a few weeks and in many cases merely days. In the past three months, for instance, the average daily gain/loss in the S&P 500 has been 3.5 percentage points—nearly five times the norm of the last 80 years. Read more...

Market Update 10-28-08

It was another tumultuous ride on Wall Street last week. Disappointing third quarter earnings reports from major companies such as Boeing and AT&T worsened investor pessimism and led to another stock price tumble, wiping out gains last week. All the major U.S. indices took deep dives before today's rally the Dow was down over 5%, the S&P nearly 7%, and the Nasdaq almost 10%.

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Market Update 10-28-08

It was another tumultuous ride on Wall Street last week. Disappointing third quarter earnings reports from major companies such as Boeing and AT&T worsened investor pessimism and led to another stock price tumble, wiping out gains last week. All the major U.S. indices took deep dives before today's rally the Dow was down over 5%, the S&P nearly 7%, and the Nasdaq almost 10%. These losses seemed not too bad in contrast to what occurred in foreign markets. The DAX dropped 10% and the Nikkei 225 dropped an astounding 20% in one week as fears grew that recessions elsewhere in the globe will hurt Asian exports. 

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Market Update 09-09-08

The rout in commodities and equities continues. No doubt you're feeling the pain from the water torture that this deep correction has wrought every bit as much as we do. Unfortunately, declines such as the one we're experiencing can be deeper and go on for longer than one would reasonably expect. However, we take comfort in the knowledge that the secular bull market in commodities remains in place and that the downside risk from here is dwarfed by the upside potential in the coming months and years. You should too.  

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Market Update 08-12-08

The U.S. dollar is trading near a 6-month high against the euro, and it is helping the market sentiment. At the same time, we feel that the low price for oil and gold, caused mostly by the stronger dollar, while helping the markets, is becoming irrational. Selling oil and oil stocks does not help address the supply/demand misbalance issues that caused oil prices go up in the first place. Today, the International Energy Agency raised the forecast for energy demand for the next year as it expects Chinese oil consumption to go up after the Olympics. The forecast was increased by 70,000 barrels, to a total of 87.8 million barrels a day. 

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Market Update 01-06-08

 A miserable year for the market ended on a high note. In the final week of 2008 and the first trading day of 2009, the Dow gained nearly 6% and ended up above 9,000 for the first time in nearly two months. The S&P 500 was up over 7%. The market fell back slightly yesterday as some investors took profits, only to come back in stride today.

 Yesterday, President-elect Obama met with Congressional leaders and reiterated the need for fast stimulus action. He’s favoring a two-year stimulus plan in the neighborhood of about $800 billion. In addition to extra federal spending, the plan includes tax cuts worth $300 billion for households and about $100 billion for businesses. Some specific provisions in the plan, such as a one year tax credit for companies who hire new employees, are still being negotiated. However, the plan even the way it looks today is certainly a confidence booster. Read more...