Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries

WHAT THEY’RE THINKING

Merrill’s Energy Bulls

 
Wall Street has two kinds of analysts: buy side and sell side. Buy side analysts are directly in the fray. They manage money and use their research to make actual choices in picking stocks. Thus their records are easy to assess; simply look at the record of the mutual fund or portfolio they’re associated with. (Our Fund Finds Portfolio, p. 7, is built around the picks of the best buy side analysts.)
 
Sell side analysts work for Wall Street firms, follow stocks and industries, and make recommendations. It’s harder to evaluate their performance, but all the available indications are that it is dismal. Recent studies have shown that over the past four years, stocks they favored dramatically underperformed stocks they panned. These findings don’t surprise us. After all, how many sell side analysts were bearish on tech in 2000?
 
Today, as we’ve consistently been arguing, myopia on energy is the mirror image of tech myopia in 2000. No firm is forecasting an uptrend in energy prices.
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No-Brainers

For-profit higher education companies get high marks for torrid growth

 
From a standing start in the mid-1990s, for-profit higher education has become a major growth industry. It’s one that fills a pressing need—bringing college degrees to employees who for one reason or another haven’t been able to attend conventional nonprofit educational institutions.
 
This expansion of educational opportunities via the private sector has been a great boon for employees and employers alike. Of the 122 million civilians in the workforce, just 31 percent have a Bachelor’s degree or higher. Such credentials translate into an average annual income of nearly $50,000, and more advanced degrees push average income sharply higher. By contrast, average income of someone with just a high school diploma is below $25,000. (We are, of course, excluding Bill Gates.) The benefits for employers come in the form of more skilled, productive workers.
 
The table lists the leaders in this burgeoning industry. As you can see, they share some important common features, which add up to a compelling case for each.
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Summer doldrums???: 06-26-08

Typically at this time of year, Wall Street is fairly quiet as many traders spend time away from their screens in favor of sunning themselves in The Hamptons. But that hasn’t been the case this week.

 

Stocks sold off sharply today, with the major averages down anywhere from 2.94 to 3.33 percent, depending on your chosen benchmark. The selling in the past month had been most heavily concentrated in financial shares. But today’s volume was extremely heavy and we saw more than 5 stocks shares falling for every one gaining and volume an even move lopsided at 9-to-1 to the downside, underscoring the broad-based nature of the selling. End-of-the-quarter window dressing added to the selling.

 

The television talking heads were all over the fact that the Dow Jones Industrials slipped to their lowest point since September, 2006. But the venerable index’s woes are largely a matter of problems with its handful of constituent members, most notable of which is the ailing General Motors which fell to a 53-year low today. But as we know, the days of “as goes GM, so goes the U.S.” are long over.

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Prices rise but we get that sinking feeling…: 05-22-08

Crude oil prices topped $134 a barrel this morning. As you know, we’ve long anticipated sharply rising oil prices. But we’d be lying if we told you we weren’t a little nervous with what we’re witnessing these days.

 

We’re now well above the sort of price increases which typically lead to economic contractions. Moreover, even the oil producers—the very companies that will benefit from higher prices—are starting to struggle. If we see these shares start to sell off even as oil prices advance further it would be a proverbial fallen canary in coal mine signaling trouble ahead for the overall economy and stock market.

 

Yesterday, Congressional leaders hauled representatives from some of the nation’s largest oil companies up to Capitol Hill for questioning. The senators were demanding an explanation as to why gasoline prices were so high right now. Judging by their remarks, members on both sides of the aisle demonstrated that they have little or no understanding of how the oil business works.

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Cooking the books…: 05-15-08

Yesterday we had news that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by a less-than-expected 0.2 percent. That lowered the year-over-year rise in consumer prices to 3.9 percent, down from 4 percent the prior month. The market cheered the news, bidding up share prices by a healthy margin on expectations that inflation will continue to abate. But picking apart the data we weren’t all that impressed.

 

For instance, thanks to a “seasonal adjustment” the CPI counted gasoline prices as having fallen 1.9 percent in the month. Excluding the seasonal adjustment, however, gas prices actually rose 5.6 percent in April. With gas prices having risen even further in May, next month’s CPI is likely to come in a bit hot.

 

Food prices, meanwhile, as measured by the government’s data collectors, staged their biggest one-month gain in a generation, climbing 0.9 percent in April. On a year-over-year basis the CPI says food prices have climbed just 5.1 percent in the past year. But let’s face it, a quick glance at your weekly grocery bill will likely tell you that the CPI number is understating real life conditions by a wide margin.Read more...

How Low Can They Go?: 03-06-08

By some measures, the credit crunch has moved to a new extreme. The latest statistics show a big jump in mortgage foreclosures and delinquencies. Capital constrained lenders aren’t making things any easier: Despite the sharp decline in rates on the short end of the credit spectrum, rates on new fixed-rate mortgages have actually climbed. At some point lower rates and lower home prices should stabilize prices sometime later this year. And this being an election year, the government will likely step in help, but we’re sure to see more turmoil beforehand.

 

The Fed has signaled that they would lower rates further to aid the economy, but we doubt they were thinking they’d have to act so quickly. The market isn’t waiting around for the Federal Reserve to act. Traders are betting that we’ll see a 50 to 75 basis point cut in the fed funds rate in the next couple of weeks.

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Inflation is off to the races...: 02-28-08

Well, if you had any doubts that inflation is a very real problem, chances are they were erased yesterday. Last week it was the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that was throwing off an alarming reading. This week the inflation pictured darkened further as the Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed to a generation high.

 

Wholesale inflation has risen at a 7.4 percent level during the past 12 months. The increase in the index is tied to rising prices for a host of inputs rather than just energy costs. And while we don't expect crude oil prices to climb by another 65 percent as they have during the past year, other commodities are likely to continue to advance, keeping the PPI in an uptrend.

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Crude Awakening…: 02-21-08

Last week we talked about soaring wheat prices. This week the story in commodities has returned to crude oil. Texas Tea moved to a new high the other day, climbing back across the $100 a barrel threshold before backing off somewhat.

 

There has been no lack of theories as to why prices have soared $14 a barrel in just two weeks. Along the lines of the suspect excuses was the shut down of a Texas refinery (that produces less than 1 percent of the gasoline consumed every day in this country). More plausible was comments from several OPEC ministers about cutting the cartel’s production when the organization meets next month.

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The pop of the bubble approaches. 08-10-09

Short-Term Key: Negative  Long-Term Key: +50

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