White House

Stock Market's Wall of Worry: 01-28-10

A bull market climbs a wall of worry. But the wall of worry has just gotten taller. 

Since peaking at 1150 on Jan. 19, the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index has dropped 6 percent in seven trading days. This has occurred despite generally positive corporate earnings. 

With the decline has come a rebound in the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index, or VIX. The Fear Index jumped from a low 17.5 on Jan. 19 to as high as 28 just three days later and has since been in the 23-26 range. Still, this level of volatility is only about average for the last 10 years.

Good news on corporate earnings with a poor stock-market response is a clear sign of trouble, at least in the near term. To be fair, "good" isn't good enough after the stock market has soared some 70 percent in 10 months. And the news hasn't been all good, to say the least. Read more...

Financial Services' Prospects Remain Dim: 06-18-09

President Barack Obama this week proposed a major overhaul in financial-industry regulation. If approved by Congress, the many proposals would affect virtually every aspect of the financial system.

 

But the plan likely faces opposition both from those who say it would hamper free markets and others who say it doesn't go far enough. The White House hopes Congress will pass a comprehensive law by year end.

 

The plan may well be the most important financial-services legislation of the last 50 years. President Obama called it “a sweeping overhaul of the financial regulatory system, a transformation on a scale not seen since the reforms that followed the Great Depression.”

 Read more...

Stocks Try To Stabilize: 02-26-09

Stocks tumbled on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to a 12-year low and almost 50 percent off the peak it hit just 16 months ago.

 

The market bounced back on Tuesday after Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, played down the likelihood that the government will nationalize major banks, potentially wiping out existing shareholders. His reassurance on nationalization followed earlier statements from the White House that supported a privately held banking system.

 

Following President Barack Obama's address to Congress on Tuesday night, a rally attempt failed on Wednesday, leaving stocks modestly in the red. Thursday was a similar story, but with somewhat more weakness in the broad market.

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Government's Expanding Role: 02-12-09

This has been another big week for the U.S. government as it continues to take a rapidly widening role in our financial system and economy. Unfortunately, this is necessary at a time when consumers and the private sector are contracting.

 

Congress and the White House agreed on a $789 billion economic-stimulus package yesterday. It features tax breaks for individuals and businesses; infrastructure spending; aid to states; and increased low income/unemployment aid.

 

This likely is the largest economic-rescue program since the 1930s. But the plan's strongest impact on the economy is likely to come not within the next few months, as originally envisioned, but later this year and in 2010.Read more...

Do you have this in Beige?...: 06-12-08

Eight times a year the Federal Reserve releases an assessment of economic conditions in its 12 Regional Bank territories. Yesterday we were treated to the latest of these reviews in its Beige Book, so called for the color of its cover.

 

The view from the central bank is that the U.S. economy remained generally weak last month and that higher energy and commodity prices are being passed on to consumers in some areas. The Fed reported that the economy was stable in five regions but described conditions as weak or soft in the other seven regions.

 

No real surprise there, but we’re encouraged that the Fed sees conditions aren’t deteriorating as you might infer from some recent economic reports. Take, for instance, last week’s big jump in the civilian unemployment rate, which sent shutters through the stock market.

 Read more...

Market Update 08-25-09

Yesterday was an interesting day in the markets. The equity markets ended essentially flat after opening with gains on the Fed Chairman and European Central Bank President’s remarks that the world economy is pulling out of the recession.  
 

A strong rally in Treasuries (and a large decline in bond yields for the day), signaling bond buyers’ concern about the economy, which contrasts with the stock investors’ optimism—injected some caution into the equity market. Bond yields, contrary to what they are supposed to be doing during the market rally, fell in two days out of the previous four days of stock advances. 
 
We have been concerned about the health of our banks for a while. Yesterday, SunTrust Banks CEO James Wells’ warning that banks are a ways away from declaring victory even if the recession has run its course confirms those worries. The SunTrust CEO noted that while the conditions in the financial sector have improved, things remained “very, very difficult.” He pointed out that while banks are still struggling to overcome bad residential real estate loans, the worst is yet to come for commercial real estate.  
 
More analysts are now predicting that a high number of banks could go out of business as a result of the financial crisis – on top of the 81 that have already failed so far in 2009.  

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Market Update 07-20-09

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Inside this week's update...
 
***** Healthcare and the state of America.
***** Bureaucracy. Need we say more?
***** The strength of our competition.
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If you've been with us for any length of time, you probably have a thorough understanding of why you should invest in commodity stocks, energy, gold, and BRACC nations. These sectors are destined to be the long-term winners.
 
But today we're going to talk about something a little different: healthcare, and what it tells us about the growing dysfunction of American society (oh yes, and about making money too)...
 
 
THE MOUNTING COST OF COMPLEXITY
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Market Update 05-26-09

Our hat’s off to the White House (along with the Federal Reserve). They have done an outstanding job of talking up the stock market since early March. With little in the way of funds available to bail out the ailing banks, and Congress in no mood to provide more cash for the cause, they’re trying to talk their way out of the slump. The propaganda we’ve heard over and over is that everything is fine with the nation’s largest banks and the economy will soon start to improve. The idea is that if people start thinking things are getting better it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
The success of this strategy is evident in the stock market’s rally off the lows and today’s rebound in consumer confidence, which climbed by the most in six years (to an 8-month high). Of course improving confidence won’t automatically translate into a significant increase in consumer spending. And the latest consumer optimism had more to do with the perception of where we’ll be in six months rather than where we are right now. In fact, the average man on the street according to the survey sees little in the way of an improvement in current conditions.
 
As for where we are today, also out this morning, the Case-Shiller Home Price data showed the retreat in the housing is far from over. That follows last week’s dismal print on housing starts, which continue to spiral lower.
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Market Update 01-20-09

2009 Five Presidents, President George W. Bush...

Image by BL1961 via Flickr

President Barack Obama was sworn in today in a historic and poignant ceremony. Obama is moving into the White House facing a number of daunting challenges. Fortunately, we believe, he has assembled a capable team that is up to the tasks at hand. That view is shared by the American people who have assigned the nation’s new leader a record high approval rating.Read more...

Market Update 12-09-08

 The market is acting as if bad news that keeps coming in has mostly been discounted. While over 500,000 people became unemployed in November and the unemployment rate of 6.7% is now the highest rate in the U.S. since 1974, the market rallied on Friday and Monday before pulling back some today. 

Of course, the axe continues to fall for many more workers. We are just 9 days into December, but over 40,000 more people who work for the Forbes 500 companies alone have lost their jobs. 2.7 million Americans have become unemployed since December of last year, and the number is probably going to worsen this month. This all makes all more certain that the job-creation plan of President-elect Obama revealed last Saturday will be taken very seriously. Read more...