Ben Bernanke

Market Update 01-26-10

Last week stocks put in one their worst showing in a year, with blue chips dropping nearly 4 percent. Market breadth was lousy and volume remains on the light side. This week share prices are staging a half-hearted rally, but we suspect stocks will continue to have a downward bias in the near-term. Read more...

Weekly Update 11-30-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -57 (Neutral)
 
A few weeks ago, 60 Minutes aired a story about one of the most polluted towns in China. The town is in the business of importing electronic waste (old computer monitors, cell phones, etc.) from the U.S. and melting it down to recover valuable metals.
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Market Update 11-02-09

Short-Term Key: Negative Long-Term Key: -30 (Neutral)
 
This morning in our office, someone jokingly quipped that with gold over $1,000 an ounce we might have to stop using gold bars as doorstops. I said, “Don't worry, they're insured.”
 
Of course, we don’t actually have gold doorstops, but if we did, the only thing to worry about would be theft. Gold has the unique advantage of being virtually immune to the physical risks that plague other assets.
 
For instance, unlike other commodities, gold will not degrade over time. Its beauty endures in a way that makes ageing film stars and fashion models green with envy. It does not oxidize and corrode like other metals do, nor is it fragile in any way.
 
True, gold's chemical properties can be replicated somewhat using silver or platinum, but neither of these comes as close to gold in attaining the Platonic ideal of timeless beauty.
 
Moreover, the gold supply has remained fairly constant throughout history.
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Market Update 08-25-09

Yesterday was an interesting day in the markets. The equity markets ended essentially flat after opening with gains on the Fed Chairman and European Central Bank President’s remarks that the world economy is pulling out of the recession.  
 

A strong rally in Treasuries (and a large decline in bond yields for the day), signaling bond buyers’ concern about the economy, which contrasts with the stock investors’ optimism—injected some caution into the equity market. Bond yields, contrary to what they are supposed to be doing during the market rally, fell in two days out of the previous four days of stock advances. 
 
We have been concerned about the health of our banks for a while. Yesterday, SunTrust Banks CEO James Wells’ warning that banks are a ways away from declaring victory even if the recession has run its course confirms those worries. The SunTrust CEO noted that while the conditions in the financial sector have improved, things remained “very, very difficult.” He pointed out that while banks are still struggling to overcome bad residential real estate loans, the worst is yet to come for commercial real estate.  
 
More analysts are now predicting that a high number of banks could go out of business as a result of the financial crisis – on top of the 81 that have already failed so far in 2009.  

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Market Update 07-21-09

Last week was the best week the Dow has posted since March. Some positive (or rather less negative) economic data and increased earnings from some companies were the cause. Cautious optimism about the future of commercial lender CIT also helped set the better market mood.Read more...

Market Update 05-07-09

Yes, the Market Is Improving

This week’s news—news leaks actually—of the government stress test results for the banks shows just how much the investment environment has changed in two months.

In early March, news that Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo and others need $67 billion of new capital would have sent the shares of those banks tumbling—and the broad market with them.

This time, shares of the banks jumped across the board yesterday, regardless of whether they have been judged to need new capital. And the broad market climbed to a four-month high. Stocks were down today.

At least six financial institutions—J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, MetLife, American Express, Bank of New York Mellon and Capital One Financial—apparently won’t be forced to raise additional capital. Results for several other institutions aren’t available yet. Official results are due after today’s close.

After 18 months of a bear market that brought indexes to a 12-year low, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is up about 34 percent in two months. Yet it appears that most professional investors remain skeptical and still expect that this will prove to be another “suckers’ rally” or “bear trap” like those in March, October and November last year.
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Market Update 03-19-09

Market Update: From the Editors of "Leeb's Income Performance Letter"

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The Fed's Dramatic Buying Binge
Your Best Investment Moves Now
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The Fed's Dramatic Buying Binge

The Federal Reserve is living up to its promise to do whatever it can to get the economy going again. Catching the financial markets completely by surprise, the Fed stepped up that effort in a big way yesterday with the announcement that it will pump another $1.15 trillion into the financial system by purchasing U.S. Treasury issues and mortgage securities.

The Fed said it will buy $300 billion of Treasury securities, mostly in the two-to-10-year maturity range; increase its purchase of mortgage-backed securities from $500 billion to $1.25 trillion; and double its purchase of debt from government agencies to $200 billion.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 02-25-09

  Chairman of the Fed...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Stocks were deeply oversold and looking for an excuse to rally heading into yesterday’s trading. They got that excuse in the form of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony on Capitol Hill.Read more...

Market Update 02-24-09

Today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his semi-annual report to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington. While the picture of economic conditions he painted was bleak, the market rallied. This is because of the way he addressed the problem with the financials and the fears about their nationalization. He said today that after stress tests, the Treasury will buy convertible preferred stock as needed in the 19 largest U.S. banks, and that the shares will be converted to common equity (thereby diluting existing shareholders) only as the extraordinary losses happen. He stressed the critical need to stabilize the financial markets in order for economic recovery to occur and urged “strong government action” to complement the recently approved fiscal stimulus package and break the self-perpetuating cycle of weak economic growth and financial market strains. Read more...