Florida

Mid-Week Update 10-28-09

Earnings season rolls on. Despite still less-than-compelling economic readings, earnings reports have largely been good. With exactly half of the S&P 500 companies already having reported, we’ve seen 75 percent of them meet or beat expectations. Granted, many of these upbeat results stem from cost-cutting rather than strong top-line results, but we’ll take whatever we can get. Read more...

REITs with the Right Stuff

Rental apartment REITs are out, retail and office REITs definitely are in

 
REITs—real estate investment trusts – have been hot lately. So far this year, total returns are up some 32 percent vs. a 21 percent gain for the S&P 500. And REITs are inherently less risky because of the income cushion they offer. The only question is how much longer can this have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too state of affairs persist.
 
A while longer. Note, though, that not all REITs are created equal. The key is to focus on those in the most dynamic real estate segments. Such REITs offer the potent combination of capital appreciation and growth in dividend payouts.
 
First, what to avoid. Rental apartment REITs have lost out as low longer-term interest rates and the availability of cheap mortgage financing make owning a home more attractive than renting.
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Mid-Week Update 07-29-09

We’ve reach the midpoint of earnings season and companies’ quarterly reports continue to be digested by the market. To date, about 75 percent of those S&P 500 companies who have reported earnings have beat consensus estimates. Unfortunately, many of these positive surprises have come on cost-cutting measures and other one-time items that are not sustainable ways of supporting earnings. The real earnings strength has come from companies with exposure to the developing world – countries whose economic engines have once again started churning. However, today we’ll highlight two of our portfolio picks that recently published results that beat estimates despite relying much on the domestic market – remarkable exceptions to the rule.
 
FPL Group (FPL), the country’s largest producer of wind power, reported profits that beat analysts’ expectations. Excluding one-time items, which included energy price hedges, the Florida-based company reported earnings per share of 99 cents, 2 cents better than estimates.
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Mid-Week Update 06-24-09

As the market begins to roll over, it becomes increasingly important to protect your portfolio. Of course, we advocate holding precious metals, like gold, that will hold their value in both inflationary and deflationary times – but some well positioned stocks should remain cornerstones of your portfolio as well. This type of company should boast a fundamentally stable business and a dividend stream to cushion investors in tough times, but also an element of growth that rewards investors in better times.

In the current market, some utility companies fit the bill. Withthe Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve pulling out all the stops to keep interest rates low, and many utility yields look attractive at current levels. Add in that a market pullback will likely initiate a flight to safety, and selected utilities could also offer substantial capital appreciation.

We don’t recommend going out and buying utilities at will, however, as all are certainly not created equal. Most will provide nice income streams, but the growth of that stream is largely tied to regulated rate increases. As we enter an exceptionally inflationary era, with interest rates rising (at some point), we point you towards those utilities that have an element of growth, so they can not only grow earnings – but grow their dividend payments as well, giving you a positive return in real terms.Read more...

Market Update 12-17-05

  A CES attendee plays ...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Weekly Update 

December 14, 2005 

But will we still call them Greenbacks? Congress is sending a bill to the White House for approval of the introduction of new dollar coins beginning in 2007. Each of the coins will feature a dead president on one side and the Statue of Liberty on the other. Grover Cleveland, the lucky devil, will get two coins since he served two non-consecutive terms.Read more...

Market Update 09-29-04

  (NO SALES, NO ARCHIVE...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Weekly Update 

Stocks continue to run on a treadmill. Despite the daily ups and down they can't seem to make any forward progress. And new 52-week highs, while clearly in sight, just aren't getting any closer. The usual suspects share the blame for this going-nowhere market. 

Crude oil briefly penetrated the psychologically important $50 a barrel level yesterday before retreating somewhat.Read more...

IS THE BAD NEWS JUST ABOUT OVER FOR OIL? 01-22-07

We get a lot of attention when we report big changes in our outlook for the market (it’s more interesting to readers). But no news can be good news. So we don’t mind that this past week saw only minor progress in the trends we have been following. Our Master Keys remain as bullish as last week, and our other indicators remain positive. We see no reason to change our short-term outlook on stocks.

We still think oil remains the key to the market in 2007, and because of that we are a little less optimistic than last week (that’s less optimistic for stocks, more optimistic for oil prices). It appears that oil may have bottomed – that’s may have. A definite bottom will only be certain in hindsight.

However, the biggest technical event last week was another gain in the Dow Transports. At risk of overstressing the point, the failure of the transports to make new highs has so far made it impossible for us to declare an all-out bull market. That new high still has not arrived, but it’s close. Transports closed Friday at 4859. A close over 5000 would be the signal we have watched for, and would imply the bull market will extend well into this year.Read more...

THE BIG FLAP OVER GASOLINE 10-08-06

Macbeth, as Shakespeare fans will recall, was a man inspired by three witches who told him he would become king of Scotland. Their forecast was correct. However, his joy was later undone by the second part of their prophesy, that he would not pass the crown on to his descendents, but be overthrown.

Over the past few months, we’ve made you a similar kind of forecast – giving with one hand, and taking away with the other. Specifically, we said the Dow would make a new high, but that it would more likely signal a peak than the start of a new bull market.

Last week the first part of our forecast came true. The Dow hit an all-time high of 11,850. Meanwhile, the S&P, while well below its all-time high, continues to set new recovery highs. Other averages made a good showing too, including financial stocks and utilities.

However, before you grow too ecstatic, remember the other half of our forecast. The gains in the Dow remain unconfirmed by gains in other averages. For instance, the relative strength of the broad market, while not exactly bearish, has not kept pace with the Dow. This tells us that the number of stocks making new highs is being whittled away as the rally continues – not a fatal sign, but not a positive one either.Read more...