Macbeth, as Shakespeare fans will recall, was a man inspired by three witches who told him he would become king of Scotland. Their forecast was correct. However, his joy was later undone by the second part of their prophesy, that he would not pass the crown on to his descendents, but be overthrown.
Over the past few months, we’ve made you a similar kind of forecast – giving with one hand, and taking away with the other. Specifically, we said the Dow would make a new high, but that it would more likely signal a peak than the start of a new bull market.
Last week the first part of our forecast came true. The Dow hit an all-time high of 11,850. Meanwhile, the S&P, while well below its all-time high, continues to set new recovery highs. Other averages made a good showing too, including financial stocks and utilities.
However, before you grow too ecstatic, remember the other half of our forecast. The gains in the Dow remain unconfirmed by gains in other averages. For instance, the relative strength of the broad market, while not exactly bearish, has not kept pace with the Dow. This tells us that the number of stocks making new highs is being whittled away as the rally continues – not a fatal sign, but not a positive one either.Read more...
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