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Mid-Week Update 04-28-10

The earnings season excitement continues, with companies largely beating Wall Street estimates. Our recommendations have been no exception, so far. However, besting estimates doesn’t necessarily mean that a stock will rally – and this quarter we’ve seen many companies report impressive results for the period, only to see the stock fall in the subsequent market session.

One such example is cell phone chip-maker and Growth Portfolio member Qualcomm (QCOM), whose stock has been on a rollercoaster ride since the company’s last quarterly report in January. In that instance, the company reported a solid quarter, but its guidance (based on weaker demand from Europe), left something to be desired in the eyes of analysts. We agreed, but saw the short-term weakness in the stock as a buying opportunity. A couple months later, the company revised its guidance – essentially back to its original forecast – based on better than expected demand from its developed economy markets. The stock, as you might expect, gapped up.Read more...

Mid-Week Update 02-03-10

In Monday’s Market Update, we highlighted the few information technology companies that we feel qualify as franchises. With one exception, all of those companies are represented in our Growth Portfolio. Today, we add Qualcomm (QCOM) to the portfolio – completing our technology franchise portfolio. Read more...

Mid-Week Update 10-07-09

With the market’s attention focused on the minute details of economic readings, the recovery of the fragile banking sector, and gold hitting all-time highs, some of the most stable companies have been left out of the headlines. However, that recently changed in regards to two Income Portfolio members over the last couple days, as both AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) made announcements that could shake-up the mobile phone industry. Read more...

The Tricky Art of Buying Tech

As tech products come down in price, investors need to get a lot pickier

 
The chart below graphically presents the dilemma you face when it comes to investing in tech. Depicting the role information technology has played in the economy over the past eight years, it has two separate lines. As you can see, one line is virtually flat—in fact, it is down a bit from its high point in 2000. The second line, though, rises steeply.
 
The flat line shows the dollar value of tech in the economy. The uptrended line reflects the actual physical presence of tech in the economy—for instance, the number of semiconductors in use. The explanation for why the two lines don’t look the same is simple: we’re using more tech, but prices have been coming down.
 
This, in a nutshell, is why the technology arena is both compelling and tricky for investors. The rising demand for tech products creates an indisputable opportunity.
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Snapping up Shares of OmniVision

A picture-perfect outlook for a maker of digital camera chips

 
The fund family that includes Bjurgman, Barry Microcap fund, which was sold this issue from FundFolio, recently launched a new, more general, fund. Called Bjurgman, Barry All Cap Growth fund (BACFX), it is led by the same talented manager, O. Thomas Barry III but focuses on larger-cap, more liquid holdings. We were curious to see what Barry was buying for this new fund. This led us to one of its newest positions—Omni-Vision Technologies, which now joins our FundFinds portfolio as an aggressive holding.
 
You may not have heard of Omni-Vision, but if you’ve seen any of those Sprint commercials featuring cell phone users taking and transmitting pictures of people in embarrassing situations, you already know something about the company. It makes chips that wrap up all the functions of a camera into one compact image sensor, and it is far and away the leader in this burgeoning area. In the last quarter alone, the increasing popularity of cell phone cameras boosted the company’s year-over-year cell phone-related revenues by more than 200 percent.
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The Roaring Russian Bull

Russia has what the world needs now

 
Editor’s Note: When a market index rises 50 percent or so in six months, you generally think “bubble.” But Russia today is an exception. While its major indices have soared since January, many Russian stocks with outsized potential remain dirt cheap. Russia has more of what the world needs—i.e., oil and natural gas—than any other capitalistic nation on the globe. The fact that the ruble has been appreciating against the dollar is evidence that the world recognizes Russia’s importance to the global economy. Below, Ross, a Russian-born broker equally comfortable reading English and Russian balance sheets, highlights three of the surest beneficiaries of Russia’s surging capitalism.—SL
 
One of the world’s cheapest oil companies is Lukoil, the biggest vertically integrated oil company in Russia and the fourth-largest in the world. Doing business in 30 countries, it is a diversified operation active in all aspects of the oil business, from production to the sale of petroleum products. Altogether it accounts for about 20 percent of Russian oil production and 18 percent of Russian refining.
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Mid-Week Update 07-01-09

An impressive quarter is now in the books. The second quarter of 2009 saw the S&P 500 rally almost 16 percent, its best quarterly return since 1998. Of course, this is on the heels of the sharpest market downturn in 80 years. Despite the rally, which took stocks deserving and undeserving alike from cheap valuations, there are still some bargains to be had.
 
Case in point is one of the most dominant companies on the planet – Intel (INTC). Intel is the leading semiconductor chip maker, with a global market share of approximately 80 percent. The company manufactures microprocessors, chipsets, flash memory and motherboards for computing and communications products under two business segments: the Digital Enterprise Group and the Mobility Group.
 
In Fiscal 2008, the Digital Enterprise Group accounted for 56 percent of the company’s $37.6 billion in total sales. With chips for desktop computers, servers, and enterprise applications, the group boasts high margins, and account for nearly three quarters of Intel’s annual profit of $5.2 billion. Meanwhile, the Mobility Group, with products for notebook computers and netbooks accounted for most of the remainder.
 
The Mobility Group is also an area in which Intel is concentrating on growth – centered on its new Atom processor.
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Mid-Week Update 05-06-09

Since the stock market bottomed in early March, stocks of all shapes and sizes have been off to the races. As a whole, blue chips have risen 35 percent using the benchmark S&P 500. You can count technology as among the best performing sectors, not only from the low but year-to-date as well.
 
Technology can be a tricky sector to invest in, since it’s difficult for any company to achieve, let alone maintain, a dominant position for any length of time. The TCI Growth Portfolio includes three exceptions, Apple Computer (AAPL), Adobe (ADBE) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). As a group the trio has risen an average of 55 percent from the market’s closing lows. Although they’re all likely to pull back with the market in any near-term correction, each of these companies is still quite attractive at current valuations and they offer excellent long-term profit potential.
 
Image representing Hewlett-Packard as depicted...
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Market Update 01-05-07

IPO Insight Weekly Update

01/05/07

Despite the weaker markets, IPG Photonics continued to trade in a narrow sideways pattern this week. There are not yet any new fundamental developments to report for the company. As the Wall Street Bankers involved in the deal are prohibited from providing any research coverage of the company until the "quite period" expires, which is usually 40 days after an IPO begins trading, there are no reports from them either.

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 This suggests that investors like you who bought IPGP near its opening price of $25 are continuing to hold the stock rather than heading for the exit gates. We continue to believe in the company's investment story and think its revenues and earnings could easily beat analyst's expectations over the coming quarters. Read more...

Weekly Update 12-20-04

OPEC headquarters in Vienna

Image via Wikipedia

Year-end cross-currents combined with dollar and energy worries kept stocks in check last week and today. Our comments from last week still stand. Namely, despite continued bullish readings from our short-term Master Key, we would not be surprised to see this churning action continue through the end of the year and perhaps into the early part of January. At the same time we don’t think the rally is over and continue to view 11,000 as a reasonable target for the Dow.

Both our Master Keys improved over the past week. Our short-term Master Key continues to broadcast a favorable message. The current reading of 2.88 is solidly bullish. Moreover, as we have stressed, the underpinnings of this indicator remain the very strong performance of the broad market, which continued last week with new all time highs in the relative strength of un-weighted averages.Read more...