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Market Update 09-29-09

As expected, the Fed decided not to make any significant changes to its policies last week, keeping the interest rate at virtually zero. Additionally, the Fed announced the continuation of its Treasury buyback program, set to end in October, while deciding to slow down the pace of purchasing agency debt and mortgage backed securities – now set to be completed in March of 2010, rather than by year’s end as originally planned.
 
While acknowledging improvements in the financial markets and the housing sector, the FOMC statement sounded more cautious regarding consumer spending. No wonder – the consumer is being constrained by ongoing job losses, little income growth, lower household wealth and tight credit.
 
The fact that the Federal Reserve intends to keep interest rates at the lowest level possible for an indefinite amount of time is another indication that the economy is still very fragile. We are concerned that the Fed doesn’t appear to have any exit strategy in place as inflation potentially could come on very quickly, brought in big part by the loose monetary policy implemented around the world.
 
Oil ended last week at about $66 per barrel, falling over 8 percent last week. This was the largest weekly drop in two months, pointing to still weak energy demand and again confirming that recovery isn’t going to happen overnight.
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Market Update 09-22-09

The Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve, is convening today and will make statement including policy changes, if any, tomorrow afternoon. After the last meeting in August, the Fed announced that economic activity was leveling out. With recent improvements in some economic data points, the Street is probably expecting talk of recovery tomorrow. If the Fed’s outlook isn’t optimistic enough, it could be seen as a disappointment and put downward pressure on the market. In any event, the Fed is expected to make no changes to interest rates and to continue its program of buying back $300 billion worth of Treasuries, now nearly complete. Read more...

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Market Update 09-15-09

One year ago, Lehman Brothers became the largest bankruptcy in history, tipping the financial system into crisis mode. The market crashed, credit froze, and the economy sunk into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Today, the financial system has stabilized, but the number of banks continuing to fail—92 so far this year at last count and more than 400 sitting on the FDIC’s trouble banks list—reminds us that it’s not over. And the hundreds of billions worth of toxic assets, which have seemed to disappear from headlines, still pollute banks’ balance sheets. Read more...

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Market Update 09-08-09

The latest employment report from the Department of Labor was a mixed bag of news. While the number of initial job loss claims last week declined by 4,000 from the preceding week, at 570,000, it was 10,000 more than expected. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance also rose by 92,000 and now totals more than 6.2 million. The unemployment rate crept closer to double digits to 9.7 percent in August after it had remained essentially unchanged in June and July. There are now 14.9 unemployed Americans, and that figure doesn’t include the more than 9 million people working part time involuntarily or the discouraged people who have given up job hunting. Although recent economic data have suggested slight improvement, the job market still remains bleak, reiterating the likelihood that Americans will not open their wallets wide enough to facilitate a smooth and speedy economic rebound.

Meanwhile, gold continues its impressive run. It eclipsed the $1,000 mark earlier today and has rallied some 5 percent since the start of last week. Investors are beginning to question whether the market, up some 50 percent since its March low has much upside left. Helping the bearish case is unusually low trading volume, as well as the last week’s performance. The U.S. dollar, once synonymous with safety, is no longer the safe haven as a direct result of the unprecedented amount of national debt and our loose monetary policies.Read more...

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Market Update 09-01-09

The market was greeted by good news this morning as the manufacturing index, as measured by the Institute of Supply Management, showed that manufacturing expanded. The index rose to 52.9 in August, a better than expected reading (anything above 50 represents expansion), marking the first time in 19 months that the U.S. manufacturing activity has expanded.
 
The reading for new orders spiked to 64.9, the highest since December 2004. The Fed’s easing and other policy measures, as well as the Federal government’s stimulus programs (including the “cash-for-clunkers” program and tax credits for first time homeowners) are being credited with having a big part in the improvement in demand. Companies’ need to restock after inventories fell at a record $159 billion annualized rate in the second quarter also contributed to the improvement.
 
So why did the market decline? Today’s report is no doubt encouraging, but after inventories are restocked, there’s no guarantee that there’ll be sufficient consumer demand to continue growth. And the government’s spending has its limits too.
 
In addition, as we mentioned before, at today’s valuations the market prices in a lot of good news. Any slowdown in news flow – or a small disappointment reported – is bound to dampen the market’s expectations.
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Market Update 08-25-09

Yesterday was an interesting day in the markets. The equity markets ended essentially flat after opening with gains on the Fed Chairman and European Central Bank President’s remarks that the world economy is pulling out of the recession.  
 

A strong rally in Treasuries (and a large decline in bond yields for the day), signaling bond buyers’ concern about the economy, which contrasts with the stock investors’ optimism—injected some caution into the equity market. Bond yields, contrary to what they are supposed to be doing during the market rally, fell in two days out of the previous four days of stock advances. 
 
We have been concerned about the health of our banks for a while. Yesterday, SunTrust Banks CEO James Wells’ warning that banks are a ways away from declaring victory even if the recession has run its course confirms those worries. The SunTrust CEO noted that while the conditions in the financial sector have improved, things remained “very, very difficult.” He pointed out that while banks are still struggling to overcome bad residential real estate loans, the worst is yet to come for commercial real estate.  
 
More analysts are now predicting that a high number of banks could go out of business as a result of the financial crisis – on top of the 81 that have already failed so far in 2009.  

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Market Update 08-18-09

A bad finish to last week marked the first time in five weeks that markets had a weekly decline. The slide continued on Monday as bad news regarding retail sales and consumer sentiment sparked investors’ fears that consumers aren’t going to be spending enough to support economic recovery.Read more...

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Market Update 08-11-09

“Banks in $38.5 Billion Overdrafts Windfall.” That headline sounds like something out of The Onion, the satirical “fake” newspaper, but it was a front-page headline in yesterday’s Financial Times. The source of that windfall: overdraft fees. The penalties banks charged for overdrafts accounted for more than 75 percent of bank service fees charged to customers in 2008.Read more...

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Market Update 08-04-09

On Monday, the S&P 500 Index eclipsed the 1,000 mark for the first time since last November, boosted by the release of some more positive economic data points and continually rising commodities prices. Treasury yields gained 4 percent yesterday to 3.63, signaling higher risk tolerance in the market.Read more...

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Market Update 07-28-09

The rally of the last two weeks has mostly been earnings-driven. The S&P 500 and the Dow both gained better than 11 percent in the period, fueled by better-than-expected earnings reports. About 75 percent of companies who have reported second quarter earnings have beaten estimates, but we caution that cost cutting and strong Chinese demand were responsible for the results. Companies with only domestic exposure didn’t do so well which speaks volumes about both the nature of the recovery and an arduous road ahead the U.S. economy still has.Read more...

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